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This morning3点,美联储发布12月货币政策会议纪要,其中提到:政策利率可能处于或接近本轮紧缩周期的峰值,实际的政策路径将取决于经济如何发展;过度限制性立场可能给经济带来下行风险;2024年降息的可能性很高,但利率路径高度不确定。从与会者的发言来看,会议纪要的整体态度偏向鸽派,因为其中提到了“紧缩周期峰值”“经济下行风险”“2024年降息”等关键词。事实也符合我们的判断:美元指数在会议纪要发布后,五分钟级别,连续收出三根长阴线,由于亚盘和欧盘美元指数涨幅较大,所以美盘时段的回落只形成了全天阳线的长上影。虽然2024年降息已经是大概率时间,但开始降息的月份却无法确定。市场主流预期认为今年3月份美联储就会开启第一次降息,这一观点偏向激进,比较稳妥的看法是今年上半年美联储将有一次降息动作。
Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.