Ultima Markets[Market Hotspot] US crude oil production has emerged from the shadow of the epidemic...

US Department of Energy10month12Announced today, the United Statescrude oilThe production has reached a historic high, reaching1,32010000 barrels/Day, completely offset the daily excess of300A loss of ten thousand barrels. Not long ago, Standard&Poor's 500 The energy index doubled three and a half years later.

after2020After years of sluggishness and lingering supply chain shocks, oil demand has slowly rebounded. and WTI The rise in crude oil prices — — During the COVID-19, it dropped to less than one barrel 15 USD,2022 Annual recovery to 120 USD, currently approaching 90 dollar — — Can make previously unprofitable investments work.

(US Oil Production, Energy Information Agency)

Conservative capital expenditures of oil companies

according to Statista According to data, US oil companies reduced their capital expenditures from 2014 Of 1,997 Reduce one billion US dollars to 1,066 Billion US dollars, leading to a decrease in oil production and potentially delaying recovery. They use this money to pay higher dividends and stock repurchases.

According to data from the Ministry of Energy, the quarterly fees paid by oil and gas companies last year were approximately 750 USD100mn The department stated that the proportion of operating cash flows from oil companies to shareholders has increased from 2019 About the year 20% Rise to half.

(S&P Energy Industry Index)

Oil well efficiency improvement

The increase in productivity of each oil well offset the decrease in capital expenditure - although all oil production in the United States has recovered, the number of closely watched Baker Hughes drilling rigs is still less than 2018 Half of the annual level. According to data from the Ministry of Energy, the average production of each drilling rig in Xinjing has just exceeded 1,000 bucket/And four years ago, it was 668 bucket/Day. Therefore, the industry can fully recover without the need to add a large number of new wells or drill in many new locations.

Even as more and more cars shift towards electrification, the demand for old cars and the use of petroleum in chemicals will keep the petroleum business at a very large scale. Next year, US production will increase to a daily rate1,360 Ten thousand barrels, to2025 The year will increase to1,390 Ten thousand barrels. Afterwards, forecasting will become even more difficult as many things may change, but by the end of this decade, oil consumption should peak before it begins to decline,Rystad Energy Prediction.

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