There is an opportunity for both pigs and eggs to rise Live pigs are more specific

SinafuturesThe heavyweight launch of the "Futures Big Shot Chats on Bulk Futures" futures expert continuous wheat activity, at the current time point,crude oilIs there any operational opportunity for threaded steel? Do pigs, eggs, and apples have any rebound expectations in the fourth quarter? This episode invites Shi Yueming, a gold medal analyst at Everbright Futures, to study recent investment hotspots.

Teacher Shi Yueming believes that currently, the basis difference for live pigs is600Above all, futures are in an undervalued state and there is a possibility of an upward trend.

However, in recent days, live pigs have been suppressed by the news of selling stocks, so the trend of eggs this week is relatively stronger compared to live pigs. At the same time, due to the gradually fading hot weather, egg traders have increased their purchases, which will have a certain degree of positive effect on the market in the later stage.

However, due to the relatively small size of the egg plate and the concentration of too much industry short funds, it is more susceptible to disturbance from the capital market. So from a long-term perspective, live pigs have more opportunities to go long than eggs.

The following is a transcript (with some deletions)

Host: Many teachers are bullish on live pigs, will there be a consistent expectation that everyone will see some problems instead of being bullish? Or is there indeed a problem with the supply and demand side. For example, live pigs2301 1For friends who have not yet boarded the car, which moving average or which moving average is more suitable for configuration based on monthly contracts? Because buying on dips, no one knows when it will be low, what should we do?

Shi Yueming: Use fundamental surfaces to determine direction and technical surfaces to determine point positions. If viewed from a technical perspective, its entry position near the moving average can also be determined based on which moving average it has strong support in the early stage, or by placing orders and drawing some linesgoldDividing lines to determine point positions is also possible. As for the specific location, it depends more on everyone's psychological expectations. At present, the spot price of live pigs can reach a basis difference of approximately600above,670Left and right. So, compared to spot prices, the current price of live pigs is still in an undervalued state, and there is still a possibility of a partial increase in the price of live pigs.

Host: I saw some news that the price of pigs collected from free range farmers is about11element/About kilograms, folding it is about22000、23000The appearance may vary from place to place across the country, but the news you saw there is still a difference between spot and futures600The difference of one yuan may be reduced by the current spot price1month23600Left and right, is that what you mean?

Shi Yueming: Yes, this is calculated based on the national average price, and there may be some differences in different regions.

Netizen: Do pigs and eggs have a substitutive effect? Can you explain it in detail?

Host: Do you think eggs are also a promising variety?

Shi Yueming: Yes, the trend of eggs this week is stronger compared to that of live pigs, mainly due to the suppression of hoarding news by live pigs, while eggs mainly follow their own industrial logic. Eggs and live pigs actually have a partial consumer substitution effect. Just now, this friend asked, whether it is from the perspective of subsequent demand or from the perspective of supplementing human protein, it is similar to a commodity. If we are optimistic about the demand for "nine gold and ten silver" in the future, it will have a certain degree of boost for eggs and live pigs.

From the perspective of the supply side, in recent times,8reach10The expected decline in the inventory of laying hens in the month may continue, and like live pigs, it can be inferred that the supply of eggs during this period may also be a contraction cycle. In such a situation, it is also expected that there will be a certain degree of boost from the supply side perspective for eggs in the future.

In addition, as the weather cools down, the procurement of traders will also increase. During the early dog days, traders may worry about the storage of eggs, which may affect their purchasing enthusiasm. Recently, due to the gradual cooling of the weather, the enthusiasm of traders in purchasing has also increased. There has been a certain degree of improvement in the procurement of eggs, including downstream underwriting, which will also have a positive driving effect on the subsequent market of eggs.

Host: Compared to live pigs, eggs are more specific to live pigs. Can you understand it this way?

Shi Yueming: From the perspective of a large cycle, live pigs may have a greater opportunity to go long than eggs. Because compared to live pigs, the egg variety concentrates too much industry bearish funds, and this plate is relatively small. If we deduce from a fundamental perspective, there are indeed opportunities for price increases like live pigs, but it is more susceptible to some disturbance from the fund plate.