Corn prices in North China are rapidly rising and reboundingORreversal?

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from6Starting from the second half of the month, Shandong's deep processing has reached a temporary high point and has basically maintained a trend of weak oscillation. As of8month22Taking Shouguang deep processing in Weifang, Shandong as an example, we have created2690element/The temporary new low of tons followed by a rapid increase in prices, as of8month30Today, its corn purchase price reached2770element/Tons, weekly increase80element/Tons, Shandong deep processing enterprises generally increase their prices70-120element/Tons, from6The week with the largest weekly increase since the beginning of the month. Below is a brief overview of the operating characteristics of the current corn market in North China. The listing of spring corn in the North China region has ended, but the local basic grain supply still exists, and traders still have significant grain reserves. Below, the author summarizes the common characteristics of new grain before its listing, combined with the current situation this year, as follows:

Firstly, the regional operation of corn in the country is characterized by regional characteristics

In recent years, with the increasing consumption of corn by deep processing enterprises in the downstream of Northeast China, coupled with the active participation of large enterprises, the trade pattern of the corn market has undergone significant changes. Although the transportation of grain from the north to the south is still ongoing, the flow of grain sources is decreasing year by year. However, price inversion between regions has become the norm, and the price relationship between regions is no longer close, resulting in a significant weakening of linkage between regions. The new grain will be launched, and the Northeast and North China regions will provide a price based on their respective market characteristics. It is not appropriate to determine the price between different regions according to the idea of a favorable price.

Secondly, downstream enterprises have varying levels of inventory and greater flexibility

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according toMysteelThe corn team's contribution to the whole country12Regions,96The latest survey data from major corn deep processing manufacturers shows that,2022Year's Day34Week, as of8month24Total inventory of corn in daily processing enterprises307.910000 tons, down from last week1.5%. Due to the fact that deep processing enterprises in North China have always adopted a strategy of on-demand procurement, coupled with the sustained low arrival volume in the early stage, the inventory of enterprises remains low, and there is a demand for replenishment in the short term, which is also one of the reasons for the rapid rise in corn prices among enterprises.

surface1 Inventory of feed enterprises (days)

according toMysteelThe corn team's contribution to the whole country18Provinces,47The latest survey data from a large-scale feed factory shows that as of8month25Daily average corn inventory of feed enterprises30.43Day on week decline0.56Heaven, decline1.80%, up from the same period last year3.53%. From the inventory of feed enterprises, the situation in production and sales areas is different. The inventory of feed enterprises in production areas has significantly increased year-on-year, while the inventory of feed in sales areas has decreased to a certain extent year-on-year. Under normal circumstances, there is limited space for the inventory of feed enterprises in sales areas to continue to decline, and the inventory level of enterprises in production areas may continue to decline as new corn gradually enters the market.

Thirdly, seasonal decline is inevitable

From the annual market trend, it is almost inevitable that there will be a seasonal decline before the new grain market goes public, but the magnitude of the decline may vary, and the magnitude of the decline is also influenced by market sentiment and other factors. As can be seen from the table above,2022The low point of the year is still1month19Of2624element/Tons,8month22The acquisition price of Riqi has reached2690element/There was a rapid rebound after tons. With the gradual launch of new corn, the production of new season corn will have a significant impact on market sentiment. It is expected that corn prices may still fall before the launch of new grains, but due to the expectation of a decrease in corn production in both Northeast and North China this year, the market is generally optimistic about new corn prices. Therefore, the possibility of new grain prices hitting new lows within the year is relatively small. Given the purchasing and sales characteristics of the North China market, it is not ruled out that there may be a rapid decline in the listing of new grains. Of course, from the perspective of market sentiment, all parties in the market generally have a cautious and optimistic attitude towards the acquisition of new grains.