End of peak season for steam coal Market attention to gold, silver, and non electricity demand

Source: Securities Times

8month29Early morning trading, domesticfuturesThe overall price of black products in the market has declined. While the high temperatures in many areas have fallen and the surge in electricity consumption has significantly eased, the summer peak season for thermal coal has also come to an end. However, as the golden September and silver October approaches, downstream metallurgical and chemical industries such as steel and coal are gradually experiencing a peak in demand, and market attention is shifting towards expectations of a rebound in non electricity demand.

Weakened expectations for a stronger electric coal market

Under the influence of high temperature restrictions in many regions such as Sichuan, the market once paid high attention to the strengthening demand for electric coal. However, with the temperature falling, the demand for power generation from thermal coal has also been suppressed.

On the message side,29According to the official website of the Sichuan Provincial Department of Economy and Information Technology, due to the recent decrease in temperature and increased rainfall in Sichuan Province, the inflow of water from the basin has gradually increased, and the power supply capacity has been improved. The contradiction between power supply and demand has been alleviated to a certain extent. It has been decided to adjust the first level emergency response for energy supply guarantee in Sichuan Province to the second level emergency response for energy supply guarantee from midnight on the same day.

On the industry policy side, Dongwu Futures pointed out that the National Energy Administration has approved advanced production capacity for coal mining projects since the beginning of this year377010000 tons/Year, adjust production capacity90010000 tons/Year, and promote trial production capacity of approximately700010000 tons/Year, ago7The year-on-year growth of coal production in the last month exceeded10%. At present, the overall inventory of electric coal in China is sufficient, reaching1.7A historical high level of over 100 million tons, available for approximately23Days.

For the current spot market,CCTDAccording to the analysis of China Coal Market Network, the temperature in the south is gradually falling, and the turning point of downstream daily consumption has emerged. Terminal procurement has shifted from hot to cold, and it is expected that the number of ships in the port will decrease in the future. But compared to the same period last year, the daily consumption is still relatively high. On the one hand, the current inventory heat value is low, and on the other hand, the hydropower output is weak this year, and the pressure on thermal power is obvious. Overall, the coastal long-term cooperative coal supply has a certain guarantee, and the terminal inventory depletion is slow. The demand for high calorie coal will also slow down in the future. At present, the price center of power coal in Beigang has slightly shifted upwards, with cement and electricity procurement being the main demand.

Except for thermal coal,29The prices of black series commodities such as daily coking coal, coke, rebar, and hot-rolled coils have also fallen overall.

In the spot market, some coke companies have started the third round of coke price increase, with strong demand for raw materials. According to my news on Iron and Steel Network, coke companies are currently actively operating, with low inventory in the factory. The game between coke and steel has led to a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

After the previous two rounds of price hikes, the continuous loss situation of coke enterprises has improved, with profits turning from negative to positive, and profits per ton of coke in different regions expanding to100element~200Around yuan, the production enthusiasm of coke enterprises has rebounded.

Pay attention to the demand for gold, silver, and ten

near9As the summer peak season for thermal coal comes to an end, the market's expectations for increased demand for non electricity are gradually increasing.

CITIC Futures believes that daily consumption will experience a seasonal decline as the temperature decreases, leading to a lack of momentum in industrial electricity consumption, while non electricity demand remains relatively weak. It is expected that coal demand will cool down. There is a marginal downward pressure on domestic coal supply, and it is expected that safety production and epidemic prevention and control will increase the disturbance to coal production, supporting the prices of mines and ports. Coupled with insufficient market liquidity, the downward space for coal prices is limited; In the medium to long term, with the recovery of the industrial economy and the rebound of non electricity demand, there is still a significant possibility of an upward trend in coal prices in the fourth quarter.

CCTDAnalyst Shu Hao from China Coal Market Network predicts that the insufficient hydropower output will result in9、10The impact of the month is still significant. Currently, the overall water level and flow of the Yangtze River are low, and the dependence on thermal power is still heavy. Pay attention to the degree of support from industrial demand for daily consumption after the temperature drops, and there is still some expectation for non electricity demand in the gold, silver, and ten sectors.

Minsheng Securities believes that with the emergence of cold air, although the daily consumption of power plants has declined, the demand for coal in the downstream core of the market, such as metallurgy and chemical industry, is good, with strong demand support and strong price performance. The peak season of non electricity demand has led to a shortage of coal supply, and coal prices have risen as expected. In terms of "dual focus", the profits of steel mills are gradually recovering, and the inventory reduction of finished products is more obvious. In addition, the Steel Association statistics show that key steel enterprises8In the first half of the month, the daily production of crude steel increased month on month, while the production of molten iron continued to increase. The purchase of coke in demand has increased, and with the gradual release of downstream demand, downstream is expected to usher in a new balance of supply and demand, which will further promote the improvement of supply and demand in the coke market.

Chen Kexin, Chief Analyst of Lange Steel Economic Research Center, said that since the beginning of summer this year, many regions in China, especially in the southern region, have experienced widespread high temperatures and droughts, leading to a shortage of electricity supply. In this situation, as a major consumer of electricity, steel and steel production, especially electric furnace steel production, will be somewhat suppressed. and9、10In this month, various parts of the country will basically bid farewell to high temperatures and heavy rain, while the epidemic has also eased. Due to the inspection and supervision of central institutions, and the implementation of government responsibilities and goals at all levels, the country will usher in a peak season of construction and industrial production, significantly increasing the demand for steel.

7Since mid month, steel prices have bottomed out and rebounded as a whole.

According to market monitoring data from Lange Steel Network,7month15The average daily price per ton of steel in China is4183Yuan, Bi5month5The daily high has dropped23%。7After mid month, the average ton price of steel nationwide began to rise. reach8month26Day has already rebounded to4387Yuan, up nearly from the previous low point5%。