Wang Decheng: The black series of backpedals means going long,8Japanese Thread Coke, Coal, and Egg Market...

       Wang Decheng: The black series of backpedals means going long,8日螺纹焦炭焦煤鸡蛋行情分析

　　

   Thread Main Contract:

    Threaded steelfutures偏强震荡，近日钢厂检修增多，焦炭等原料涨价对成材形成成本支撑，投机性需求增加，现货上涨，基差较大，盘面获支持。但新一轮寒潮来袭，终端需求预计维持偏弱态势，现货上涨空间有限。盘面短线预计维持震荡，关注现货成交情况。今年四季度钢价持续创下年内新高，目前依然处于较高的位置，基本抑制了大家“冬储”的热情。陈克新表示，目前如此高的钢价，大家“冬储”的意愿会降低。如果今年四季度钢材“冬储”量不大，自然会减轻2021年一季度的供给压力，从而推动钢材市场指标集体向上。近日钢厂检修增多，焦炭等原料涨价对成材形成成本支撑，基差较大，盘面有支持。

    但新一轮寒潮来袭，终端采购观望情绪加重，需求维持偏弱态势，现货上涨空间有限。对于后期的走势，预计2021年国内钢铁市场将呈现宽幅震荡格局，钢材均价将有所上移，上涨空间将会扩大，下跌空间将会缩小，全国钢材平均价格较2020Annual increase5%左右。近期螺纹钢自年度高价、高估区巨幅回调后回升；明年粗钢产量下降、需求增加预期支撑较强，关键位多头主动增仓拉涨；高价区资金集中增减、大幅洗盘风险增大。回调关键支撑区企稳后可考虑做多，超涨至年度高价区（高估值）承压可考虑轻仓分批布局月度周期空单。

   操作建议：螺纹量能逐渐增加，走势区间上扬，走势突破压力，操作上以4530reach4330之间高抛低吸，短空为主，滚动操作，逐渐移动获利保护。

   Egg Main Contract:

    养殖端补栏积极性有所提高，孵化场订单量缓慢增加，种蛋利用率提高，减轻供应端压力，同时气温的下降，鸡蛋可存储时间也可适当延长，也给行情提供底部支撑。再加上，近期猪肉价格明显上涨，亦给鸡蛋行情提供利好支撑。玉米、豆粕价格高位强势运行，养殖户在饲料成本逐步递增的情况下提价意愿强烈。随着下游食品厂、农贸市场春节前备货或将逐步启动，鸡蛋市场走货加快，本周库存继续下降。但是随着鸡蛋价格涨至高位，蛋商采购较为谨慎，终端消化需要时间，预计短线鸡蛋价格或将逐步趋稳。

　　操作建议：鸡蛋整体趋势走强上攻行情，鸡蛋连续区间整理波动洗盘强势行情，王德诚建议鸡蛋回调4295Support the upper level's batch entry and multi order strategy, with short-term attention4330and4348Stop profits and reduce positions in batches.

　焦炭主力合约；

　　【行情分析】现货：全国多地焦企提涨焦价100元，山东钢厂已接受提价。当前山西、河北等地月底加速去产能，焦炭强势大涨。日照、青岛港焦炭涨价、成交稳定：准一级焦2450Primary focus2550，含税价。汾渭平原受天气影响时发环保限产，焦企开工率微调，库存低、强势涨价；煤矿整治及蒙古通关问题焦煤涨价；钢厂高需求，小幅增加补库备货；钢厂和港口库存小幅降库。

　　操作建议：焦炭整体走强上攻拉升行情走势，日线周线整体走势将有望延续冲高行情走势，笔者建议回调2972Support the strategy of entering multiple orders in batches above, please note3010and3038Stop profits and reduce positions in batches.

　

   焦煤主力合约：

    今日，国内炼焦煤市场稳中偏强。节后多数煤企恢复正常生产，但近期环保因素对运输阻碍减弱，煤企出货节奏加快，库存下降明显，报价则较为坚挺；此外，进口蒙煤通关持续低位，口岸蒙煤库存所剩无几，进口蒙煤价格持续上探。需求方面，经过前期积极不哭，有个别焦企场内原料煤库存增至高位，但在钢厂较为旺盛的需求下，焦企原料煤库存将加速消耗，短期需求面对炼焦煤市场仍有一定支撑。综合来看，预计短期内炼焦煤市场稳中偏强运行。

     操作建议：焦煤一直震荡上行，多头动能强势，笔者建议以1700reach1685区间作为防守去采取低多操作。

   写在文末：做期货的朋友都知道期货分时交易，晚上11The market will stop at midnight, and traders don't have to stay up late to watch the market. That's really tiring. For doinggoldcrude oilAs a trader, the author has always emphasized a state of investment: strict light position operation, strict stop loss, strict reduction of operation, not investing too much funds in trading, treating trading as a pastime. It doesn't matter if you lose or win every day, and it doesn't affect the normal operation of your family. In this way, even with the wind and waves blowing, you can still be better than idle walking, and there is no need to stay up late to read and analyze the market. Once the market fluctuates greatly, you will be jumpy, Don't ruin your health by not making a profit on your account.

   Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat Sync on your phone:15851503763。