王牌精英：美元汇率对原油价格的影响

王牌精英：美元汇率对crude oil价格的影响
货币是商品价值的衡量指标。当商品的价值提高，则货币相对会贬值，商品的价值减少，则货币相对升值。美元作为全球性的货种，它的汇率变化在一定程度上反映了全球商品贸易的价值走向。
目前全球大宗商品交易主要是以美元来定价，世界各国foreign exchange储备中美元占比在65%左右，美元汇率走势对商品交易市场、futures市场及各国经济利益再分配格局等均有重要影响。其中受美元汇率波动影响比较大的有原油、gold白银等大宗商品。

原油与美元汇率的关系同黄金与美元汇率的关系有所区别，黄金价格受美元汇率的影响，而原油价格和美元汇率更体现出一种互动的关系。
原油价格上涨，世界经济都会受到影响，包括美国这个世界最大的原油消费国。原油价格上涨所带来的通涨压力会给美元带来贬值压力，而美元贬值所带来的直接影响就是以美元计价的原油价格会随之上调。
反过来，当油价下降，对全球经济来说是个利好信号。人们对美国经济有较好的预期又会推升美元汇率，导致油价进一步下调。
据专家估算，原油价格和美元汇率之间的相关系数是-0.7。也就是说，高油价往往和弱势美元同时出现。所以，美元汇率与原油价格是异向的变动关系，即美元贬值就会引起油价上涨，美元升值则引起油价下跌。因此，原油投资者应当关注美元指数同汇率的变化。
另外，油价波动又将直接影响全球经济尤其是美国经济的发展，因为美国经济总量和原油消费量均列全球第一。美国经济长期依赖石油和美元两大支柱，据国际货币基金组织估算，当油价连续上涨时，国际货币基金组织也随即调低本币汇率。美元贬值使大量美元流入国际市场，带来油价上涨压力。
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