Industrial Investment: Crude Oil Ends Three Consecutive Yin Beware of a sudden end to the rebound

Industrial Investment:crude oilEnd Triple Yin Beware of a sudden end to the rebound
2017year1month12day
Crude oil:
The news of Saudi Arabia reducing Asian supply on Wednesday and the positive factors of Trump's heavy blow to the US dollar have driven oil prices to continue their upward trend since the mid-term. After multiple bearish factors, oil bulls finally welcomed hope. However, the United StatesEIAThe significant increase in crude oil inventories has limited the increase in oil prices. United StatesNYMEX 2Monthly crude oilfuturesrise1.43USD, increase2.81%Report52.25dollar/bucket;ICEBrent3Monthly crude oil futures increase2.72%Report55.10dollar/Bucket.
According to reports, Saudi Arabia has already reduced2Monthly crude oil supply targeting Indian and Southeast Asian customers to coordinateOPECTake action to reduce production. Asia has always been the market that Saudi Arabia values the most,1The supply decline in the Asian market in the month indicates that Saudi Arabia is very determined to reduce production. However, Saudi Arabia's crude oil supply to other Asian clients will remain stable. It is reported that,2Saudi Arabia will fully supply most North Asian customers in the month.
Overnight US Energy Information Agency(EIA)The latest data shows that as of1month6During the current week, US crude oil inventories increased409.710000 barrels to4.831Billion barrels, with an increase of0.9%Expected to increase116.2Ten thousand barrels. Domestic crude oil production in the United States continued to increase last week17.610000 barrels to894.610000 barrels/Day, create2015year5The largest weekly increase since the beginning of the month. US crude oil imports increased last week182.810000 barrels to905.210000 barrels/Day, the increase in import volume for the week was a record2012The highest level since the beginning of the year. This data puts pressure on oil prices.
Although oil prices have ended three consecutive negative periods and rebounded again, investors still need to be cautious about the rebound in oil prices. The prospects for implementing future production cuts are yet to be observed, and some member countries have shown a significant increase in crude oil production. Libya's crude oil production has more than doubled in the past six months, with production rising last Sunday70.80Ten thousand barrels, reaching a three-year high. And Russia is currently only reducing production10Thousands of barrels, Iraq's crude oil exports have surged again. These phenomena have to make the market doubt whether the reduction in production can truly be implemented. So the author believes that the rebound in oil prices may not be sustainable, or there is still a need for a correction.
USD Index:
Prior to President elect Trump's first press conference on Wednesday, the US dollar index fluctuated and rose to a high of over a week102.91Due to market expectations for details such as Trump's potential disclosure of fiscal expenditures. However, the result disappointed investors. At the press conference, Trump highlighted the uncertainty of American politics. The failure to disclose details of fiscal policy and tax reform has dampened hopes for bullish US dollars, leading to a significant decline in the US dollar index from its highest point on the day and a dip from its lowest point101.24Closing report101.76. As Trump's press conference draws to a close, the focus of the market will once again shift to the speeches of Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen. In New York time, five Federal Reserve chairmen, including Dallas Fed Chairman Kaplan, St. Louis Fed Chairman Brad, Atlanta Fed Chairman Lockhart, Philadelphia Fed Chairman Huck, and Chicago Fed Chairman Evans, will also deliver speeches. Signals about future interest rate hikes may have a huge impact on the financial markets. In addition, if the minutes of the European Central Bank meeting have a significant impact on the euro, it will also indirectly affect the US dollar, which is also worth paying attention to.
technical analysis
US crude oil:
Daily chart: Although it stopped falling and rebounded overnight, it is still constrained below the medium-term upward trend, and there is still a possibility of falling before breaking through.
4Hour chart:5The rebound force of bottoming out and rebounding is not significant,53.78The strong resistance in the vicinity is expected to limit the rebound space of oil prices.
Hour chart: Bounce toMA100(52.65frontline)Blocked and falling, the random indicator entered the oversold zone, but remained bearish.
Overview: Rebound or unsustainable. It is recommended to do so within the day52.50Short selling on the front line, with stop loss set at52.95Above, let's take a look first51.40Look again51.00。
Brent crude oil:
Daily chart: Three consecutive negative rebounds ended overnight, but failed to break through20The daily moving average will continue its downward trend.
4Hour chart:55.65The strong resistance in the vicinity will limit further oil price increases.
Hour chart: rising to55.60There has been a decline in the vicinity and it is expected to continue from there58.30The fluctuating downward trend since the first line.
Overview: Or tends to decline. It is recommended to do so within the day55.40Short selling on the front line, with stop loss set at55.95Above, let's take a look first54.50Look again54.00。
Follow on Thursday:
Japan12Outlook for Monthly Economic Observers/Current situation index
France12monthCPIHarmony and HarmonyCPIMonthly rate/the annual rate
Italy/eurozone11Monthly industrial production rate/the annual rate
Number of initial and renewed unemployment claims in the United States last week
U.S.A12Monthly export/Monthly rate of import price index/the annual rate
Canada11Monthly rate of new housing price index/the annual rate
Last week in the United StatesEIAChanges in natural gas inventory
Minutes of the European Central Bank meeting
Speech by Federal Reserve officials Huck, Evans, Lockhart, Brad, and Yellen