Crossing the Sea 2017year1month6day

Crossing the Sea 2017year1month6day

Focus this week:
1month6day(Friday)
U.S.A12Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A12Monthly private employment positions
U.S.A12Monthly manufacturing employment positions
U.S.A12Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A12Monthly average hourly rate
U.S.A12Monthly and weekly average working hours
U.S.A12Monthly labor force employment participation rate
U.S.A11Monthly International Trade Balance
U.S.A11Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A11Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision

1month9day(Monday)
U.S.A12Monthly employment trend index

1month10day(Tuesday)
U.S.A11Monthly Consumer Credit
United States12monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index
U.S.A11monthJOLTS职位空缺数
U.S.A11月批发库存月率修订
U.S.A11Monthly retail sales rate

1month11day(Wednesday)
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index

1month12day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
美国续请失业金人数人
U.S.A12Monthly import price rate
U.S.A12月出口物价月率

1month13day(Friday)
U.S.A12Monthly federal budget  
U.S.A12Monthly final demandPPI
U.S.A12Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPI
U.S.A12Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIthe annual rate
U.S.A12Monthly retail sales rate
U.S.A12Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars
U.S.A11Monthly commercial inventory rate
U.S.A1月密西根大学消费者信心指数初值



Important economic data released today:
18：00 eurozone11Monthly retail sales rate‧forecast-0.4%‧Previous value+1.1%
18：00 eurozone11Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Previous value+2.4%
18：00 eurozone12Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Previous value0.42
18：00 eurozone12Monthly Economic Prosperity Index‧forecast106.8‧Previous value106.5
18：00 eurozone12Monthly Industrial Prosperity Index‧Predict negative0.4‧Negative front value1.1
18：00 eurozone12Monthly Service Industry Prosperity Index‧Previous value12.1
18：00 eurozone12Final value of monthly consumer confidence index‧Predict negative5.1‧Negative front value6.1
18：00 eurozone12Monthly Consumer Inflation Expectation Index‧Previous value6.3
18：00 eurozone12月生产者通胀预期指数‧Previous value4.8
21：30 U.S.A12Monthly non-agricultural employment positions‧Forecast increase17.8ten thousand people‧Previous value increase17.8ten thousand people
21：30 U.S.A12Monthly private employment positions‧Forecast increase17.0ten thousand people‧Previous value increase15.6ten thousand people
21：30 U.S.A12Monthly manufacturing employment positions‧Forecast remains unchanged‧Previous value decrease4000people
21：30 U.S.A12月政府部门就业岗位‧Forecast increase7000people‧Previous value increase2.2ten thousand people
21：30 U.S.A12Monthly unemployment rate‧forecast4.7%‧Previous value4.6%
21：30 U.S.A12Monthly average hourly rate‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value-0.1%
21：30 U.S.A12Monthly and weekly average working hours‧forecast34.4‧Previous value34.4
21：30 U.S.A12Monthly labor force employment participation rate‧Previous value62.7%
21：30 U.S.A11Monthly International Trade Balance‧forecast425A deficit of one billion yuan‧Previous value426A deficit of one billion yuan
21：30 Canada12Monthly job changes‧Forecast remains unchanged‧Previous value increase1.07Ten thousand
21：30 Canada12Monthly unemployment rate‧forecast6.9%‧Previous value6.8%
21：30 Canada12Monthly employment participation rate‧Previous value65.6%
21：30 Canada11Monthly trade balance‧forecast16A deficit of one billion yuan‧Previous value11.3A deficit of one billion yuan
21：30 Canada11Monthly export‧Previous value435.8Billion
21：30 Canada11Monthly imports‧Previous value447.1Billion
23：00 Canada12monthIveyPurchasing Manager Index(PMI)‧Previous value56.5
23：00 Canada12monthIvey经季节调整采购经理人指数(PMI)‧Previous value56.8
23：00 U.S.A11Monthly factory order rate‧forecast-2.2%‧Previous value+2.7%
23：00 U.S.A11月扣除运输的工厂订单月率‧Previous value+0.8%
23：00 U.S.A11Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision‧Previous value-4.6%
23：00 U.S.A11月扣除运输的耐用品订单月率修订‧Previous value+0.5%
23：00 U.S.A11月扣除国防的耐用品订单月率修订‧Previous value-6.6%
23：00 U.S.A11月扣除飞机的非国防资本财订单月率修订‧Previous value+0.9%



News of the Week

American Supply Management Association(ISM)12The monthly manufacturing index is54.7, for2014year12Monthly highest
U.S.A11Monthly construction expenditure increases0.9%to10Annual high
U.S.A12monthMARKITManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is54.3, for2015year3The highest in the past month
中国财新2016year12Monthly Service Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Ascend to53.4, creating17Month high
American Supply Management Association(ISM)12The monthly non manufacturing index is57.2
U.S.A12monthMARKITComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)The final value is54.1
U.S.A12monthMARKITCIPS services PMI (PMI)The final value is53.9
美国一周初请失业金人数为23.5ten thousand people
U.S.A12monthADP民间就业岗位增加15.3Ten thousand



1month5day
LondongoldMorning order price:1173.05
London gold afternoon fixing price:1176.70



Today's Introduction

美国劳工部将在周五公布备受关注的非农就业报告。该数据可能继住房、制造业和汽车销售等数据之后进一步暗示，特朗普从奥巴马政府手中接过的是表现强劲的经济。根据路透对分析师的调查，美国12Possible increase in monthly non farm employment opportunities178,000个，与11月的增幅持平；失业率预计从11月的九年低点4.6%Slightly rise to4.7%。平均时薪有望反弹0.3%，11Monthly decline0.1%。12月平均时薪可能较上年同期增长2.8%，11Monthly growth2.5%。然而12月就业报告可能不及预期。在11Month and12月调查涵盖期间，初请失业金人数增加，一些分析师将此归因于天冷。就业增长可能放缓的另一个原因是，12月服务业就业分项指数自11月所及的13个月高位大幅下降。不过非农就业岗位增幅只要超过10万个，就被视为足以吸收新进入就业市场的人口。美联储主席耶伦曾表示，每月需新增略低于10万个就业岗位，才能跟上劳动年龄人口增长的形势。2016year1-11月就业岗位平均每月增长18Ten thousand, below2015年月均增幅22.9万个。增幅放缓与就业市场接近充分就业的形势一致。



XAU London Gold - 美元走软助燃金价续涨

伦敦黄金周四触及12month5日以来的最高位1184.90美元，但其后出现回落，受制于非农就业数据 公布前的获利了结抛盘。市场人士将静候今晚公布的美国就业数据，以找寻美国联邦储备理事会(FED)2017年可能升息速度的线索。分析师预计12Monthly non farm employment opportunities are expected to increase17.8万个。美国服务业活动12月保持在一年高位，因新订单急增。上周初请失业金人数降至近43年低位，表明2016年末美国经济增长势头强劲。全球最大黄金上市交易基金(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust称，周四其黄金持仓量下降0.03%to813.59吨，周三为813.87Tons.

As seen in the technical chart,10Tianhe25天平均线正处于交迭，或预示着中线强势即将展开，但同时相对强弱指标及随机指数高踞于超买区域，需慎防短线或会先作整固。下方支持预估在1176and1168Next level can be seen in25Balance moving average1151美元，较大支撑见预料于1131US dollars. Estimated resistance above50Balance moving average1191To the extent that1201。倘若以近两个月的累积跌幅计算，38.2%的反弹水平将会见至1204.50USD,50%Then it will arrive1230Horizontal.

London Gold2017year1month6day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1176 – 1192
Resistance level:1201 – 1223 – 1246
Support bit:1168 – 1153 – 1131

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
12month12Day - 856.26ton
12month13Day - 856.26ton
12month14Day - 849.44ton
12month15Day - 842.33ton
12month16Day - 836.99ton
12month19Day - 828.10ton
12month20Day - 828.10ton
12month21Day - 824.54ton
12month22Day - 824.54ton
12month27Day - 823.36ton
12month28Day - 823.36ton
12month29Day - 823.36ton
12month30Day - 822.17ton
2017year1month3Day - 813.87ton
2017year1month4Day - 813.87ton
2017year1month5Day - 813.59ton

2Monthly goldfuturesDue date:2month24day
2Monthly goldoptionDue date:1month26day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year12month8day)

Global:33181.3ton(+88.9ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.9ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1842.6ton(+4.1ton)
Russia(7)：1583.1ton(+40.4ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 测探50MA

伦敦白银周四触及近三周高位16.715美元。图表所见，相对强弱指数及随机指标均已来到超买区域，要留意潜在回吐风险。阻力预估在50Balance moving average16.80Last year12月份银价试高亦曾受制50天线；下一级阻力看至17.30To the extent that200Balance moving average17.80美元。另一方面，下方支持则预料在16.50and16.10美元，较大支持预料为15.70USD.

London Silver2017year1month6day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.50 – 16.90
Resistance level:17.30 – 17.70 – 18.00
Support bit:16.10 – 15.70 – 15.30

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
12month12Day - 10664.32ton
12month13Day - 10608.28ton
12month14Day - 10608.28ton
12month15Day - 10534.54ton
12month16Day - 10575.83ton
12month19Day - 10575.83ton
12month20Day - 10552.24ton
12month21Day - 10552.24ton
12month22Day - 10581.73ton
12month27Day - 10617.12ton
12month28Day - 10617.12ton
12month29Day - 10617.12ton
12month30Day - 10617.12ton
2017year1month3Day - 10617.12ton
2017year1month4Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month5Day - 10612.51ton



EUR euro - 关注非农报告

德国联邦统计局周五发布的数据显示，德国2016年实质零售销售增长率料介于1.8-2.1%，略低于之前一年的增速。德国2015年实质零售销售为增长2.5%。数据显示，德国11月实质零售销售较前月下降1.8%Increase compared to the same period last year3.2%。该指标波动较大，经常被修正。数据整体表现正面，巩固了有关民间消费依然担当德国经济重要推动引擎 的预期。创纪录高位的就业、就业安全感的提升、实质薪资的上涨以及超低借款成本，都提高了德国民众的支出能力，使得消费成为德国经济的重要推动力量。

周五美元指数在三周低位附近，人民币跳涨之后美元看涨动能迅速消散。美元指数基本持平于12month14The lowest in recent days101.300附近，本周预计累计跌0.8%。三天前刚刚创下14Annual high103.820的美元指数隔夜受到打击，主要因美国数据黯淡并且人民币猛升。部分交易商怀疑人民币猛升可能是中方所为，以震出大量人民币空头仓位。在美国当选总统特朗普就职之前以及春节来临之前，中国方面努力阻止资本外流和维稳人民币。离岸人民币兑美元升至近两个月高位，创下2010年以来最大的两日升幅。目前投资者将关注周五的美国12月非农就业数据，分析师预估将增加17.8Ten thousand job opportunities.

技术走势而言，下方支撑回看1.0360and1.0250水平。中期走势则较为瞩目于1.00这个关口，倘若自2002年后欧元再次踏破这平价水准，很大机会将又启动新一轮跌势，较大目标预估为0.9850and0.96水平。短线阻力则预料为50Balance moving average1.0650and1.08Horizontal.

Focus:
Friday: Germany11Monthly industrial order rate‧France11月流动帐平衡‧trade balance‧eurozone11Monthly retail sales
1month9day(one): Germany11Monthly industrial production rate‧出口月率‧进口月率‧trade balance‧Italy11Monthly unemployment rate‧eurozone1monthSentixInvestor confidence index‧eurozone11Monthly unemployment rate
1month10day(two): France11Monthly industrial production rate
1month12day(four): France12monthHICPFinal value‧Germany2016yearGDP‧Italy11Monthly industrial production‧eurozone11Monthly industrial production

Related news
Germany12monthHICPInitial value increased compared to the same period last year1.7%，触及逾三年最高水平
Germany12monthCPIInitial value increased compared to the same period last year1.7%
Germany12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)The initial value has increased compared to the previous month0.7%
Germany12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Initial value increased compared to the same period last year1.7%
Germany12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)The initial value has increased compared to the previous month1.0%
Germany12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial value increased compared to the same period last year1.7%
eurozone12月扣除食品和能源的消费者物价调和指数(HICP)Initial value increased compared to the same period last year0.9%
eurozone12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial value increased compared to the same period last year1.1%
eurozone12Monthly Service Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is53.7
eurozone12Monthly Comprehensive Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is54.4
Germany11Monthly industrial orders decreased compared to the previous month2.5%
Germany11月实质零售销售较前月减少1.8%, increased compared to the same period last year3.2%
France11月经季节调整贸易逆差收窄为44亿欧元，出口创2015year6The highest since the beginning of the month

法国总统候选人勒庞建议法国弃用欧元

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0650 – 1.0800
support 1.0500 – 1.0360 – 1.0250 – 1.0000*



JPY yen - 弱势盘整，探试120Gateway

美元兑日圆下滑至三周低位115.04日圆，上日跌去1.6%，创五个月最大跌幅。美元周五反弹0.4%to115.80日圆。美元指数跌至101.37，较周二所及的14Annual high point103.82下跌逾2%。市场基本未理会美国周四公布的经济数据的影响。周四的数据整体上比较强劲。民间就业服务机构ADP Employer Services周四表示，美国12Private employment increased in January15.3万个，低于分析师预估。这令人担忧将在今晚公布的非农就业报告。

As shown in the chart trend, the relative strength indicators and random indices have fallen into the oversold area. It is estimated that after the recent consolidation market, the US dollar is expected to restart its upward trend, and the trend of the US dollar against the Japanese yen is gradually rising120Gateway,120It has been widely regarded by market participants as an important level for continued upward movement. If crossing this zone, it may trigger more follow-up buying in the US dollar. Further targets will first refer to the high point at the end of January this year121.68Afterwards, there will be2015Unbreakable in the fourth quarter of the year123.50The level, and the important mid-term goals are expected to be125Level, in2007Year and2015Years have touched higher than124.16and125.85. The support position will be reviewed first115.50and115Horizontal, with larger supporting materials112Horizontal, this is the golden ratio38.2%The callback level.

Focus:
1month10day(two): Japan12Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
1month11day(three): Japan12monthforeign exchangereserve‧Japan11Monthly simultaneous indicators‧Leading indicators
1month12day(four): Japan12月银行放款余额年率‧服务业景气判断指数‧Japan11Monthly current account
1month13day(five)Japan invested in overseas bonds two weeks ago‧Foreign investment in Japanese stocks

Related news
Japan12Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is52.4
Japan12Monthly service industryPMIAscend to52.3, for11个月以来高位
Japan11月经通胀调整实质薪资同比下降0.2%
Japan11月受薪者整体现金所得同比增加0.2%
Japan11月加班工资同比下降1.3%

有消息指日本央行正考虑下次政策会议略微上调通胀预估，因日圆贬值

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 120.00* – 121.68 – 123.50*
support 115.50 – 115.00 – 112.00



GBP pound - 弱势盘整

英镑兑美元周四连续第二日上涨，因英国又公布了强劲的经济数据，突显英国经济在退欧公投后的韧性，扶助英镑充分利用美元回软的机会上扬。英镑开盘承压，但在英国公布强劲的服务业和汽车销售数据后，英镑反弹。美国公布的上周初请失业金数据乏善可陈，令美元在周五美国将公布非农就业报告前承压。英国Markit/CIPS 12Monthly Service Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Ascend to17Month high56.2，高于路透调查访问的所有分析师预期，比11monthPMI高出整整一点。行业初步数据周四显示，尽管外界担心英国公投退欧可能打击需求，但2016年英国新车销售仍创新高达到270万辆；不过有迹象表明新车注册数量今年将减少。

预估英镑兑美元短线仍会延续弱势，上试阻力在50Balance moving average1.2440and1.25水平。关键见于100Balance moving average1.2650，在去年12月上旬，汇价正是没能突破此区而延展近三周来的跌势。因此，汇价需突破此区才可望有着摆脱弱势的倾向。下试支持则会瞩目于10month25Daily low1.2081To the extent that1.20At the checkpoint, further exploration of supporting materials is needed1.18Horizontal.

Focus:
1month9day(one): UK12monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index‧by12Three months of the monthHalifaxAnnual rate of housing price index
1month10day(two): UK12monthBRC同店零售销售年率
1month11day(three): UK11月建筑业产出‧industrial production ‧Manufacturing output‧对非欧盟地区贸易平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡

Related news
BRC: UK12月商店物价较上年同期下跌1.4%, for2015year8月以来最小跌幅
britain12Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)by56.1, for2014year6The highest since the beginning of the month
britain12Monthly Purchasing Managers Index for the Construction Industry(PMI)by54.2，升至九个月高点
britain11月抵押贷款批准件数升至67,505件并创3The highest in the past month
britain11Increase in monthly mortgage loan disbursement amount31.57亿英镑创8Lowest since month
britain11Monthly increase in consumer credit19.26亿英镑并创2005year3月以来最大月度增幅
britain11monthM4The supply of goods has increased compared to the previous month0.4%, increased compared to the same period last year6.4%
britain11月对非金融企业贷款减少7.67亿英镑并创3月来最大降幅

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2440 – 1.2500 – 1.2650*
support 1.2080 – 1.2000* – 1.1800



CHF Swiss franc - Technical oversold

美元兑瑞郎过去两日急速下滑，周四低位1.0083，刚好止步于50Balance moving average, currently50The antenna is in1.0080，视为较近支持参考，较大支持仍会瞩目于本月初未许破位的1.00Pass, reference for the next level250Balance moving average0.9840Horizontal. Attention should be paid to the resistance in the near market1.0350Further, we will see that1.04and1.05。

Focus:
1month9day(one)Switzerland11Monthly retail sales annual rate
1month10day(two)Switzerland12Monthly unemployment rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0350 – 1.0400 – 1.0500
support 1.0080 – 1.0000* – 0.9840



AUD AUD - End of sideways rise

澳洲统计局周五公布，11The monthly trade balance is a surplus12.4AUD 100 million(9.0892USD100mn)，远远超过预估的逆差5亿澳元。出口跃增8.4%，增幅高达23亿澳元，整体出口额首次超过300亿澳元大关。煤炭、铁矿石和农产品出口均实现双位数增幅，而当月进口持平前月。11月结束连续31个月的贸易赤字，随后可能会进一步出现盈余，因在中国需求持续的支持下，很多主要资源价格保持强劲。澳洲央行商品价格指数11月飙升11.8%，12月进一步上扬9.3%。

澳元与周五守在三周高位附近，隔夜涨0.7%并触及三周高点0.7356。澳元兑美元本周已上涨了近2%。澳洲贸易数据让澳元获得进一步提振。澳洲在去年11月实现近三年来的首次贸易顺差，因大宗商品价格飙升推动出口收入超过所有预估值。11月出口跃增8.4%，增幅高达23亿澳元，整体出口额首次超过300亿澳元大关。煤炭、铁矿石和农产品出口均实现双位数增幅。投资者目前聚焦于周五稍晚的美国非农就业报告。分析师预计美国12Monthly increase in non farm employment opportunities17.8Ten thousand.

技术走势而言，在经历了12月下旬的横盘整理后，今年开局高涨，目前正考验着100Balance moving average0.7320，倘若可明确突破，相信将见澳元继续走高。倘若以过去两个月的累积跌幅计算，38.2%and50%The rebound level will be0.74and0.7470Expand to61.8%by0.7540。下方支持仍会瞩目于去年5month24The low point of the day0.7145；另一个位置则会直指0.70这个心理关口。

Related news
Australia11月经季调商品/Service trade balance is a surplus12.43AUD 100 million
Australia11月经季调商品/服务出口较前月增加8%，进口持平

Focus:
1month9day(one): Australia12monthAIG建筑业指数‧Australia11Monthly Building Permit‧Civil Residential Building Permit
1month10day(two): Australia11Monthly retail sales rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7400 – 0.7470 – 0.7540
support 0.7145 – 0.7000** – 0.6800



NZD New Zealand dollars - Bottoming out and rebounding

纽元兑美元触及三周高点0.7040，该货币对本周上涨1.1%。技术走势而言，支持预估为0.68，较大支撑则会看至5月底低位0.6676To the extent that0.65水平。预估向上阻力先看200Balance moving average0.7080The next key material is0.7250and0.74Horizontal.

Focus:
1month10day(two): New Zealand11Monthly Building Permit

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7080 – 0.7250 – 0.7400
support 0.6800 – 0.6676 – 0.6500



CAD Cad - 美元呈技术超卖

In terms of USD/CAD, in terms of position, support in the near future will still be referred to first1.32The key is200Balance moving average1.3090and1.30关口。预估阻力在1.34Next level can be seen in1.3600and1.3750Horizontal.

Focus:
Friday: Canada12Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧Ivey PMI‧Canada11Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import
1month10day(two): Canada11Monthly building permit rate
1month11day(three): Canada12Monthly housing construction annual rate
1month12day(four): Canada11Monthly New Housing Price Index

Related news
Canada11月工业产品价格指数较前月上涨0.3%, up from the same period last year1.4%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3400 – 1.3600 – 1.3750
support 1.3200 – 1.3090 – 1.3000






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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)