Crossing the Sea 2017year1month3day

Crossing the Sea 2017year1month3day

Focus this week:
1month4day(Wednesday)
U.S.A12monthADPChanges in private employment positions
U.S.A12monthISM-New York Corporate Activity Index

1month5day(Thursday)
U.S.A12月汽车销量年率  
U.S.A12monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A12monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value
U.S.A12monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value

1month6day(Friday)
U.S.A12Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A12Monthly private employment positions
U.S.A12Monthly manufacturing employment positions
U.S.A12Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A12Monthly average hourly rate
U.S.A12Monthly and weekly average working hours
U.S.A12Monthly labor force employment participation rate
U.S.A11Monthly International Trade Balance
U.S.A11Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A11Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision



Important economic data released today:
09：45 China12月财新制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)
15：45 France12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)the annual rate‧Previous value+0.7%
16：30 Switzerland12Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧Previous value56.6
16：55 Germany12Seasonal adjustment of unemployment during menstruation‧Predicted decrease0.5‧Previous value decrease0.5ten thousand people
16：55 Germany12Unemployment without seasonal adjustment per month‧Previous value253.2ten thousand people
16：55 Germany12Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate during menstruation‧forecast6.0%‧Previous value6.0%
16：55 Germany12Adjusting the number of unemployed individuals during the menstrual season‧Previous value265.8ten thousand people
17：30 britain12monthMarkit/CIPSManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧forecast53.1‧Previous value53.4
21：00 Germany12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Initial monthly rate‧forecast+0.5%‧Previous value+0.1%
21：00 Germany12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Annual rate initial value‧forecast+1.4%‧Previous value+0.8%
21：00 Germany12Monthly Consumer Price Adjustment Index(HICP)Initial monthly rate‧forecast+0.6%‧Front value remains unchanged
21：00 Germany12Monthly Consumer Price Adjustment Index(HICP)Annual rate initial value‧forecast+1.3%‧Previous value+0.7%
22：30 Canada12monthRBCSeasonally Adjusted Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧Previous value51.5
22：45 U.S.A12monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Final value‧Previous value54.2
23：00 U.S.A11Monthly construction expenditure rate‧forecast+0.5%‧Previous value+0.5%
23：00 U.S.A12Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Manufacturing Index‧forecast53.5‧Previous value53.2
23：00 U.S.A12Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Input price sub index‧forecast56.0‧Previous value54.5
23：00 U.S.A12Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Employment sub index‧forecast52.5‧Previous value52.3
23：00 U.S.A12Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)New order sub index‧Previous value53.0



12month30day
LondongoldMorning order price:1159.10
London gold afternoon fixing price:--



Today's Introduction

The US dollar index2016年第四季大涨约7.1%，特朗普胜选让投资人预期，其加大财政刺激力度的计划对美元有利；而美联储(FED)预计明年会加快升息步伐，亦进一步助燃了美元涨势。美指在2016年升约3.7%，连续第四年上涨。

估计本周回来市场首个焦点将指向周三的美联储(FED)12月会议纪录以及周五的美国非农数据，料将影响美元能否在2017年的首周再续强势；随后一个更为全球所瞩目的焦点，应当是特朗普即将于1month20日正式上任，关键在于其施行的各项政策以外，有关美联储(FED)的货币政策会否面临考验亦将引人注目。



XAU London Gold - 呈技术超买

伦敦黄金方面，尽管第四季出现大幅下滑，但金价去年已涨逾9% 。此前曾连续三年收跌。黄金在12月份累计下跌近1%，第四季累计下跌约12%。金价12月的跌势主要归因于市场对美国经济的乐观看法，看好特朗普政府拟议的基建及支出活动，巩固了对于2017年利率及股价走升的预期。

The price of gold is11month9日曾高见1337.40美元，亦即是特朗普胜出总统大选当日，但此后金价持续滑落，至12月份已录得超过200美元跌幅，亦即下跌逾16%。图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数从超买区域回落，短线呈回吐风险。下方支持预估在11399and1125美元，较大支撑见预料于1117US dollars. Estimated resistance above1155and1169美元，较大阻力为1183。若果以近两个月的累积跌幅计算，38.2%的反弹水平将会见至1204.50USD.

London Gold2017year1Monthly predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1155 – 1185 – 1220 – 1286
Support bit:1117 – 1087 – 1055 – 1021

London Gold2017year1month3 – 6Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1168 – 1182 – 1198 – 1214
Support bit:1135 – 1117 – 1101 – 1085

London Gold2017year1month3day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1139 – 1155
Resistance level:1169 – 1183
Support bit:1125 – 1117

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
12month12Day - 856.26ton
12month13Day - 856.26ton
12month14Day - 849.44ton
12month15Day - 842.33ton
12month16Day - 836.99ton
12month19Day - 828.10ton
12month20Day - 828.10ton
12month21Day - 824.54ton
12month22Day - 824.54ton
12month27Day - 823.36ton
12month28Day - 823.36ton
12month29Day - 823.36ton
12month30Day - 822.17ton

2Monthly goldfuturesDue date:2month24day
2Monthly goldoptionDue date:1month26day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year12month8day)

Global:33181.3ton(+88.9ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.9ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1842.6ton(+4.1ton)
Russia(7)：1583.1ton(+40.4ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 受压下降趋向线

伦敦白银方面，上周银价连日走升，周五高见至16.27美元，正正止步于自11月初形成的下降趋向线位置，而25天平均线则在16.39，倘若可破位，有望摆脱近两个月的技术弱势；其后阻力预估在16.50To the next level17.00To the extent that200Balance moving average17.77美元。另一方面，下方支持则预料在15.40and14.90美元，较大支持预料为14.70USD.

London Silver2017year1Monthly predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:16.30 – 16.90 – 17.90 – 19.60
Support bit:15.00 – 14.40 – 13.60 – 12.80

London Silver2017year1month3 – 6Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:16.30 – 16.60 – 17.20 – 17.70
Support bit:15.50 – 15.30 – 14.70 – 14.40

London Silver2017year1month3day
Predicting early wave amplitude:15.40 – 16.50
Resistance level:17.00 – 17.20
Support bit:14.90 – 14.70

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
12month12Day - 10664.32ton
12month13Day - 10608.28ton
12month14Day - 10608.28ton
12month15Day - 10534.54ton
12month16Day - 10575.83ton
12month19Day - 10575.83ton
12month20Day - 10552.24ton
12month21Day - 10552.24ton
12month22Day - 10581.73ton
12month27Day - 10617.12ton
12month28Day - 10617.12ton
12month29Day - 10617.12ton
12month30Day - 10617.12ton



EUR euro - Step into2017，欧元仍是弱势延展

欧元兑美元上周五收报1.0513，整年计算下跌3.2%，并且已连续第三年的年度跌市。技术走势而言，欧元兑美元上周冲高回挫，若显著跌破1.05水准，预料欧元短线复再承压，下方支撑回看1.0360and1.0250水平。中期走势则较为瞩目于1.00这个关口，倘若自2002年后欧元再次踏破这平价水准，很大机会将又启动新一轮跌势，较大目标预估为0.9850and0.96水平。短线阻力则预料为50Balance moving average1.0680and1.08Horizontal.

Focus:
Tuesday: France12monthHICPthe annual rate‧Germany12monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value‧Changes in the number of unemployed individuals‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate
Wednesday: France12Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧MarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧Italy12monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧Germany12monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone12monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧HICPthe annual rate‧扣除食品和能源HICPthe annual rate‧Italy12monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value
周四：意大利第三季公共预算赤字与GDPRatio‧eurozone11monthPPI
Friday: Germany11Monthly industrial order rate‧France11月流动帐平衡‧trade balance‧eurozone11Monthly retail sales

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0680 – 1.0800
support 1.0360 – 1.0250 – 1.0000



JPY yen - 弱势盘整，探试120Gateway

美元兑日圆走势，去年年初自120水平一直滑落，至6month24日英国脱欧的点票结果公布后，触及全年低位99.08，但此后日本财金官员多番作出口头干预，至九月底再而未能跌破100关口的情况下，美元兑日圆大举反扑，于十二月中旬进占118水平。总括而言，整体走势在这一年就是「U型」发展。利率分化一直是最近几个月日圆疲软的一个关键因素。美国联邦储备委员会12月采取了加息行动 ，并准备在2017年采取更多加息，而日本央行则承诺把基准10年期日本国债收益率维持在0%about ，限制利率的上升。因此，美元兑日圆今年料仍有上升空间，但中长期应处于大型区间振蘯。美国总统大选结束后，市场风险偏好改善是由于人们关注潜在的减税和基础设施支出增加，这些是特朗普可能实施的政策中的积极方面；但随着政策前景明朗化，美国的外交政策可能会变得更加偏向于保护主义，这或将导致避险情绪升温，此外，来自欧盟面临分裂的潜在风险，亦会对风险偏好造成冲击，从而给日圆带来支撑。

As shown in the chart trend, the relative strength indicators and random indices have fallen into the oversold area. It is estimated that after the recent consolidation market, the US dollar is expected to restart its upward trend, and the trend of the US dollar against the Japanese yen is gradually rising120Gateway,120It has been widely regarded by market participants as an important level for continued upward movement. If crossing this zone, it may trigger more follow-up buying in the US dollar. Further targets will first refer to the high point at the end of January this year121.68Afterwards, there will be2015Unbreakable in the fourth quarter of the year123.50The level, and the important mid-term goals are expected to be125Level, in2007Year and2015Years have touched higher than124.16and125.85. The support position will be reviewed first25Balance moving average115.70and115Horizontal, with larger supporting materials112Horizontal, this is the golden ratio38.2%The callback level.

Focus:
Wednesday: Japan12月日制造业PMI
周五：日本前周投资海外债券‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan11Monthly overtime pay

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 120.00* – 121.68 – 123.50*
support 117.00 – 115.00 – 114.00



GBP pound - 弱势盘整

英国退欧谈判的不确定性，令英镑持续承压，但经过接近半年时间的消化，以致汇价已从六月时的1.50水平滑落至目前的1.22水准，跌幅约18.6%，预估短期进一步的下跌幅度有限。上试阻力预估在50Balance moving average1.2420and1.25水平。关键见于100Balance moving average1.2670，在去年12月上旬，汇价正是没能突破此区而延展近三周来的跌势。因此，汇价需突破此区才可望有着摆脱弱势的倾向。下方支持则会瞩目于10month25Daily low1.2081To the extent that1.20At the checkpoint, further exploration of supporting materials is needed1.18Horizontal.

Focus:
Tuesday: UK12monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI
Wednesday: UK11Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply‧britain12monthMatkit/CIPSconstructionPMI
Thursday: UK12monthMarkit/CIPSService industryPMI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2420 – 1.2500 – 1.2670*
support 1.2080 – 1.2000* – 1.1800



CHF Swiss franc - 美元兑瑞郎呈技术超买

即市较近阻力可先留意1.0350Further, we will see that1.04and1.05。至于下方支持料为25Balance moving average1.0120，较大支持仍会瞩目于本月初未许破位的1.00Pass, reference for the next level250Balance moving average0.9830。

Focus:
Tuesday: Switzerland12Monthly manufacturing industryPMI
Thursday: Switzerland12monthCPI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0350 – 1.0400 – 1.0500
support 1.0120 – 1.0000* – 0.9830



AUD AUD - 横盘偏淡

澳元兑美元在2016年最后一个交易日收报0.7199，年内下跌约0.6%，为连续第四年走低。在经历12月上旬的大幅滑落后，在此前澳元处于横盘状态，市场正瞩目于两个位置，一个为5month24The daily low reached0.7145，上周多日低位已见逼近此区，仅未有作进一步跌破；另一个位置则会直指0.70这个心理关口，倘若后市总见跌破此区，预料澳元将迎来更大幅度的下跌空间，延伸重要目标则为在去年一月中旬多日稳守着的0.68水平。阻力位则预估在0.7280and25Balance moving average0.7340For larger resistance0.75Horizontal.

Focus:
Friday: Australia11Monthly products/Service trade balance‧Import‧Export

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7280 – 0.7350 – 0.7500**
support 0.7145 – 0.7000** – 0.6800



NZD New Zealand dollars - 失陷250MA延续弱势

纽元兑美元失陷250天平均线，后市短期有着持续下试倾向，下一级测试目标料为0.68，较大支撑则会看至5月底低位0.6676To the extent that0.65水平。预估向上阻力先看200Balance moving average0.7075The next key material is0.7250and0.74Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7075 – 0.7250 – 0.7400
support 0.6800 – 0.6676 – 0.6500



CAD Cad - 延续走弱

美元兑美元方面，位置上，较近支持仍会先参考50Balance moving average1.3380and1.32The key is250Balance moving average1.3080水平。预估阻力在1.36Next level can be seen in1.3750and1.38Horizontal.

Focus:
Friday: Canada10monthGDPMonthly rate
1month3day(two): Canada12monthRBCmanufacturingPMI
1month5day(four): Canada11月生产者物价‧原材料价格
1month6day(five): Canada12Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧Ivey PMI‧Canada11Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import

Related news
Canada10Monthly wholesale trade increased compared to the previous month1.1%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3600 – 1.3750 – 1.3800
support 1.3380 – 1.3200 – 1.3080*




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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)