张慧理金:耶伦领衔鹰派攻黄金，加息之战非农或援兵

张慧理金:耶伦领衔鹰派攻gold，加息之战非农或援兵
　　
　　
Last Friday（8.26）现货黄金再现过山车走势，盘中整体呈现冲高回落之势，而美元转升，crude oil沥青同样日线报收阴十字星。耶伦在年会发言中展现了对经济活动和通胀前景的信心，此外耶伦并未提及国内需求的弹性、中国经济增长可持续性以及英国退欧等6月会议时指出的风险；虽然仍有部分美联储委员担忧通胀问题，但耶伦的发言与近期其他几位联储官员的讲话一致，均偏向鹰派，且其措辞已尽可能地强硬，符合9月加息一次的预期，若8月非农人口维持稳健增长，料联储将在9月行动。
　　
Friday US market22:00美联储主席耶伦表示：货币政策并非处在预设路径上。经济形势正接近美联储的就业和通胀目标。加息理由“在近几个月有所加强”FOMCIt is expected that the inflation rate will rise in the coming years2%. After Yellen's speech, spot gold and silver prices fell in the short term, causing gold to plummet10US dollars and silver have reduced their gains; Non US currency exchange rates experienced a short-term sharp decline. Subsequently, Yellen stated that a gradual interest rate hike path is appropriate. Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen said the possibility of interest rate hikes in the coming months is increasing9Reserve option for monthly interest rate hikes, Federal Reserve9The decision on whether to raise interest rates on a monthly basis seems to depend on9month2Does the daily non-agricultural report indicate a stable development of the employment market. Yellen's speech this time is9The month's meeting left a possibility for a rate hike, but Yellen did not explicitly mention whether the central bank believes that economic indicators in the coming weeks may disappoint. The market has undergone a stunning reversal! Gold rose more than1%Silver has risen by more than2%，美油布油抹去此前跌幅，非美货币汇率大幅拉升。
　　
Last week, gold prices hit their lowest point1318Nearby, and Friday's market received a bearish candlestick with a long up shadow, ultimately closing at1320Nearby. In the short term1320附近确实小有支撑，而本周非农前，行情或将围绕该点位进行多空争夺。日线来看，上周连收四根阴线且周五一根倒锤子线令金价承压极强，本周周初继续走弱的概率极高。下方首先要关注的支撑区间为1315-1310一线，该区间是上一轮回调的低点区间，一旦跌破薇信公众号张慧理金预计行情会直接跳水加大跌幅，而下方最为关键的支撑位仍为1300关口，非农或对该关口进行测试！而上方目前来看，依然是阻力重重，任何一次的反弹如不能延续，或将成为做空的大好时机。日内操作上，维持逢高做空为主，上方关注1330The resistance situation in the vicinity can be shorted at an opportunity before breaking through. If there is a breakthrough, attention should be paid to last week1338-1340一线阻力对行情的压制；而下方首次触及1315-1310The frontline can consider choosing an opportunity to go long. If it falls below, move down the support level and focus on it1305-1300区间支撑情况。周一消息数据不多，仍以消化上周五耶伦言论为主，预计行情不会过大，可多看少动，等待合适进场时机。
　　
Suggestions for spot gold operations:
　　
　　1Upward rebound1327-1329Short on the front line, stop loss1331Look at the target below1320-1318frontline;
　　
　　2First step back below1313-1310Long on the front line, stop loss1307On the target1320-1322frontline;
　　
　　3As seen below1305-1302Long on the front line, stop loss1297On the target1310-1315frontline.
　　
　　
　　原油在上周三EIAAfter being bearish, there was a slight pullback yesterday, but the closing was still ongoing47.3Above, indicating46Strong frontline support. In the short term, the daily chart falls below5.10The daily moving average supports the trend, although there was no sustained decline overnight, it is expected that the short-term trend will mainly focus on weak supply and good volatility, and there is little possibility of a direct strengthening. On the daily chart, it falls below5、10Daily moving average support. From a daily perspective,5The daily moving average has clearly turned around, and the red energy bar is slowly increasing in volume,KDJRunning in the oversold area:4From the hourly chart, the moving average system shows a flattening state, and the Bollinger Bands begin to close,MACDThere is a trend of adhesion, and the blue energy column begins to shrink. In the short term,EIAThe data impact has basically stopped here, and the focus is still on the following areas46.50一线支撑，短线上建议大家回调多为主。
　　
Suggestions for US crude oil operations:
　　
　　1、47.3-47.5Short nearby, stop loss47.70, Objective46.0nearby
　　
　　2、45.8-46.0Long nearby, stop loss45.4, Objective46.6nearby
　　
Ninggui Asphalt Operation Suggestions
　　
　　1、4560-4580Short nearby, stop loss30Point, target4500Below
　　
　　2、4460-4480Long nearby, stop loss30Point, target4530-4550nearby
　　
　　
　　
Focus on data and events:8month29Day Monday
　　
The London Stock Exchange is closed for one summer banking day
　　
　　20:30U.S.A7Monthly personal expenditure rate
　　
　　20:30U.S.A7Monthly CorePCEMonthly rate of price index
　　
　　20:30U.S.A7Monthly CorePCEAnnual rate of price index
　　
　　22:30U.S.A8Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for the Month
　　
　　以上文章由分析师张慧理金撰写，文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资有风险，投资者谨慎操作，转载请注明出处。