Da Tian Jin Ye: Expectations for interest rate cuts continue to rise, and gold prices have repeatedly set records

As of2024year04month11During the Japanese Asian session, passing through the United StatesCPIAfter the release of data and the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, the current market expectation for the Fed's interest rate cut is still in June, as inflation levels have clearly fallen, so monetary policy adjustments will undoubtedly begin in the second half of the year. After the announcement of the news, it is important togoldThe momentum of prices has little impact, and the overall operating rhythm at this stage is still very strong, continuing to set new historical highs. The only possible variable in the future is the evolution of the geopolitical situation.

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　　Geopolitical turmoil still generates significant support

Spot gold fluctuated narrowly at a high level, reaching a historic high in the intraday trading session2365.18dollar/Ounces, aided by buying momentum and geopolitical risks, while market focus shifted to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting minutes and US inflation data in search of more information about the US interest rate cut schedule.

World Gold Council(WGC)In a report, it was stated that the fundamental factors supporting the current rise include increasing geopolitical risks, stable central bank buying, and resilient demand for jewelry, gold bars, and coins.

The prospect of future interest rates decreasing suggests that,(Gold Exchange Traded Fund)ETFI missed the big uptrend and am now in a low allocation state

Federal Reserve6The expected resurgence of monthly interest rate cuts also provides support for gold prices, as stated by Zhishang Exchange(CME)According to data, the market believes that6The possibility of monthly interest rate cuts has risen to near60%On Monday, it briefly dropped to50%following.

It seems that any news about the United States is a reason to buy. A signal of strong economy and inflation - highlighting the value preservation properties of gold. FxPro Senior Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich "Weakness in inflation has intensified the expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates, which is conducive to the demand for risky assets," he said

It should be noted that investors still need to continue to pay attention to relevant news on the geopolitical situation. As the ceasefire talks in Gaza continue, the risk aversion buying triggered by the geopolitical situation may weaken.

Hamas said that Israel's proposed ceasefire proposal did not meet any demands from the Palestinian side, but Hamas will further study this proposal and respond to the mediator.

In terms of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian intelligence organizations reported that Ukraine attacked the Russian aviation factory in Voronezh region. Ukrainian Air Force Commander: The Ukrainian air defense system has successfully destroyed the Russian launched missile20Attack drones.

Russian Ministry of Defense4month9According to the Daily News, in the past day, the Russian military has attacked the Ukrainian army in multiple directions, destroying American, British, and Polish made howitzers, American made anti artillery radars, as well as equipment and facilities such as tanks, unmanned hangars, and electronic warfare platforms, and shooting them down1Several Neptune anti-ship missiles, multiple rockets, and hundreds of drones.

On the same day, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces released a war report stating that the Ukrainian military had launched strikes on multiple Russian personnel and weapons concentration areas, as well as air defense facilities.

In addition, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy9On the same day, the power infrastructure in Poltava and Lviv states was attacked by drones, causing damage to power equipment but no casualties.

　　EIAInventory reduction puts pressure on oil prices and falls back

Beautycrude oilHovering near a low level in the past week, with the continuation of Gaza ceasefire negotiations, oil prices have fallen for the second consecutive day, but the decline is limited to less than one dollar per barrel, as Egyptian and Qatar mediators have encountered resistance in seeking a ceasefire.

Hamas said that Israel's proposed ceasefire proposal did not meet any demands from the Palestinian side, but Hamas will further study this proposal and respond to the mediator.

Brent crude oilfuturesFor the first time in five trading days, US crude oil futures have fallen for the first time in seven trading days due to the new round of Israel held in Cairo-The Hamas ceasefire talks have brought hope for a breakthrough.

　　City IndexSenior Financial Market AnalystFiona CincottaSay, "If the conflict is not ended, other countries, especially..."OPECThe risk of Iran, the third largest oil producing country, being embroiled in war will increase

The commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy said that if deemed necessary, the Strait of Hormuz can be closed. The oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz every day accounts for about one-fifth of the world's total oil consumption.

Türkiye announced that it would restrict the export of various products, including aviation fuel, to Israel until the ceasefire was achieved. Israel has stated that it will respond with its own restrictive measures.

US Energy Information Administration(EIA)The monthly report on the crude oil market was released on Tuesday, which stated that it is expected to2024US crude oil production will increase in2810000 barrels/Day, reach132110000 barrels/Day, and the previous prediction was to increase2610000 barrels/Day.

　　EIAExpected2024The average annual Brent crude oil price is per barrel88.55USD, while the previous forecast was per barrel87USD.

　　EIAIn its monthly short-term energy outlook, it was stated that the oil trend reflects expectations of a strong reduction in global oil inventories for the current quarter and ongoing geopolitical risks.

　　EIAIt also pointed out that it underestimated global demand over the past two years. The institution currently estimates that,2024The annual global consumption of oil and liquid fuels is approximately999410000 barrels/Day, approximately higher than previous predictions7910000 barrels/Day.

LatestAPIA series of reports on crude oil inventories show that US crude oil inventories increased last week303Ten thousand barrels, while gasoline inventories decrease60Ten thousand barrels, the second consecutive7Weekly decline. Investors need to pay attention to what will be released in the eveningEIASeries report on crude oil inventory.