Ultima Markets[Market Hotspot] Canada's labor market is cooling down, and the pace of interest rate cuts is approaching

Canada's unemployment rate2024year3The month climbed to6.1%, higher than last month's 5.8% Compared to market estimates5.9%, reaching 2021year10The highest level since the beginning of the month.

This data is consistent with the observation trajectory of the Bank of Canada, indicating that a high interest rate environment is putting considerable pressure on the labor market, igniting discussions among investors about possible interest rate cuts in the second quarter. Unemployment increases6Ten thousand people, in total126Ten thousand people are unemployed, of which65%It has taken a month to find a job.

The younger generation is the hardest hit, with unemployment rates decreasing from2Of11.6%Soaring to7The highest point in the past year12.6%, andgoldWorking age group（25year-54year)The unemployment rate varies from5%Ascend to 5.2%The increase is relatively moderate. Meanwhile, the overall net employment has decreased2,200 people to 2thousand40.3Ten thousand people, in line with expected increase 25,000 Contrary to each other, resulting in a slight increase in hourly wage growth rate10One basis point, reaching5%。

(Unemployment rate, Statistics Canada)

Labor data released, Canadian dollar depreciated from last year11The lowest point since the beginning of the month,1USD exchange rate1.36Canadian dollars. The economic contrast between the United States and Canada has led to differences in central bank policies. The strong employment data in the United States has eased the pressure of loose monetary policy, thereby supporting the strong stance of other major currencies such as the US dollar against the Canadian dollar.

(USD/CAD Half Year Line Chart)

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