ATFXForeign exchange market: Federal Reserve12The monthly interest rate resolution is approaching and may be suspended for the third consecutive time...

tomorrow3:00, the Federal Reserve will announce12The result of the monthly interest rate resolution is that the market generally expects the upper limit of the federal funds rate to be maintained at5.5%Unchanged, the Federal Reserve will suspend interest rate hikes for the third consecutive time. Last Friday's announcement11The monthly non-agricultural employment report shows that there are new non-agricultural employment population19.9Ten thousand people, far higher than the previous value1510000 people and expected value18Ten thousand people, and the unemployment rate has also increased from3.9%Descend to3.7%，意味着美国宏观经济并没有因为高利率而出现显著衰退，反而劳动力市场的需求异常旺盛。超预期的非农数据增加了美联储加息的概率，但加息的最初目的——遏制高通胀，已经不再成立。美国11Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIthe annual rate3.1%, lower than the previous value3.2%，与预期值3.1%持平。美国11Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIthe annual rate4%，持平于前值和预期值。连续下降的CPI年率数据，意味着美国的高通胀问题已经成为过去式。目前市场人士最担心的是美国宏观经济会因为高利率而出现硬着陆，对高通胀的担忧基本消失，继续激进加息已经没有必要。正如前美联储主席、现任美国财政部长耶伦所说，“美国处于软着陆的道路上，认为没必要为了压低通胀而推高失业率。”


技术角度看，美元指数正处于中期空头趋势之中，11month29日至今有反弹迹象，但本周反弹已接近尾声，顶分形阻力结构已经形成，后市可能重启跌势。均线系统仍呈多头排列，尚未向下交叉，短期跌势可能不会很快到来。震荡指标KD的读数接近超买区域，但尚未达到，同样表明反弹还将延续一小段时间。MACD指标的柱线虽然位于零轴上方，但幅度偏小，反弹力度不强。

由于欧元占美指的比重最高，所以欧元区的经济数据波动对于美指会形成显著影响。欧元区名义CPIAnnual growth rate2.4%，远低于同期美国数据，并且距离2%的中长期调控目标非常接近。欧央行继续加息的概率已经非常低，甚至有市场人士认为欧元区经济将有可能硬着陆，欧央行或将更早的开启降息。虽然美联储的货币政策会利空美指，但欧央行的货币政策反而会利多美指。所以，美指中长期走势是涨是跌仍具有不确定性，只不过当前“单独分析美联储”的逻辑占据主流，所以才会形成美指中长期走弱的预期。

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-12-13