ATFXInternational Market, Looking Forward to Major Events of the Week（0626~0702）

The data and event importance for this week, from high to low, are as follows:5Monthly CorePCEPrice index annual rate, Eurozone6monthCPI年率初值、英美欧日央行行长小组讨论。我们来逐一分析解读：


PCE数据是美联储决策的重要参考指标。美国的5Monthly CorePCE物价指数年率，将于本周五22:30Published, the former value is4.7%，预期值持平。PCEData andCPI数据类似，都用来衡量美国消费品市场的价格波动情况。由于5Monthly CoreCPIAnnual rate from5.5%Descend to5.3%，所以核心PCE物价指数仍存在超预期下降的可能性。美联储6月份的利率决议已经宣布暂停加息一次，7月份的利率决议会否加息成为市场关注焦点。如果周五PCE数据公布值显著下降，关于7月份加息的预期将大大降温。反之，市场的主流预期仍将锁定在“加息25基点”方面。


eurozone6monthCPI年率初值，将于本周五17:00Published, the former value is6.1%, expected5.6%。如果数据符合预期，意味着时隔15个月之后，欧元区的CPI再次回到“5”开头的时代。通胀率的回落意味着欧央行紧缩货币政策取得显著成效，欧央行有可能效仿美联储“暂停加息”，以观察宏观经济的运行情况。另外，欧元区的失业率最新值6.5%，处于稳步下降态势，高利率对就业的负面影响尚未显现，欧央行仍存在较大的加息空间。

This Wednesday20:30，英国央行行长贝利、欧洲央行行长拉加德、美联储主席鲍威尔和日本央行行长植田和男将参加欧洲央行中央银行论坛小组讨论。该讨论会每年举办一次，被业界称为“欧洲版杰克逊霍尔央行年会”，会议举办地点在葡萄牙小镇辛特拉。四家中央银行的货币政策存在较大差异：英央行和欧央行处于激进加息状态、美联储已经宣布暂停加息、日本央行维持一贯的宽松货币政策。四家央行行长对于未来货币政策的展望，将成为本次会议的重点内容。

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-06-26