Guide Metallographer:6.8Today's gold trend analysis: Bank of Canada unexpectedly announces interest rate hikes

Market Review:


InternationalgoldWednesday(6month7day)Rebound fruitless, closing lower again, opening price1963.28dollar/Ounces, highest price1970.00dollar/Ounces, lowest price1946.24dollar/Ounces, closing price1946.98dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


Canada to be announced on Wednesday6month7The interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan is4.75%Higher than market expectations4.5%, previous value is4.5%。


The Bank of Canada stated that consumer spending was unexpectedly strong. People are becoming increasingly worriedCPIThe inflation rate may significantly exceed2%The goal is to. The interest rate hike reflects people's concern that monetary policy restrictions are not sufficient to restore balance between supply and demand. The overall global inflation rate remains high, and major central banks are signaling that interest rates may need to further increase in order to restore price stability. Still firmly committed to restoring price stability.


Citigroup's analysis suggests that monetary policies in other regions indicate both the economic risk of prematurely stopping interest rate hikes and the possibility of "unexpected" rate hikes triggered by rising inflation. The suspension of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve may lead to a similar situation in the United States, where central banks, including the Federal Reserve, may raise interest rates earlier rather than later if policy rate restrictions are insufficient. Their basic forecast shows that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again next week25Basis points.


According to the report, the US treasury bond bond market will2023year7The last interest rate hike in the month restored full pricing. Related to7The swap contract interest rate related to the monthly meeting climbed to5.33%, which is higher than the current effective federal funds rate5.08%Above25Basis points.6The swap for the month shows that there will be more before next week's Federal Reserve meeting10A tightening space of one basis point indicates that traders are more inclined to believe that the Federal Reserve will6Suspend interest rate hikes on a monthly basis.12Monthly swap contract ratio7The monthly contract is about low25One basis point means that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by the end of the year25One basis point. Marilyn, the head of Blackstone Group's global fixed income team, said that next week everyone's attention will be focused onCPIData shows that inflation is still far above the Federal Reserve's target. Therefore, they may choose to "pause interest rate hikes". But without a doubt, it is not certain that there will be no further interest rate hikes in the future.


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day3.46Tons, current position is934.65Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve6The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is74.8%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is25.2%； reach7The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is34%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is52.3%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is13.8%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　17:00Eurozone Q1GDPAnnual rate final value


　　17:00Quarterly employment rate in the Eurozone after quarterly adjustment in the first quarter


　　20:30From the United States to6month3Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　22:00U.S.A4Monthly wholesale sales rate


Technical analysis of gold:


On the previous trading day, gold continued to decline after a volatile rebound and fell below the previous low level, reaching near the previous low. Overall, the market trend of gold still fluctuates within the trend structure range. After the Bank of Canada raised interest rates, spot gold plummeted more than30The US dollar once fell below1940The US dollar barrier. This targeted decline may have a certain guiding effect. However, it is still unknown whether there will be an expectation of a second surge in gold after data and news have faded. The last two trading days of this week will be crucial as we need to closely monitor market changes and potential influencing factors.


At present, the daily trend of gold is still in a relatively low area, and the short-term high and low points are gradually moving downwards. Overall, the market is still in a bearish and volatile state. However, bears have not fully dominated the market, and the strength of the pullback and the space for downward exploration are relatively small, and the market trend is quite tortuous. This indicates that although the market is generally bearish, bears have not fully dominated. In this trend, if bears cannot act in large quantities, it is easy for bulls to launch a counterattack. Therefore, when laying out, one should not be overly bullish or bearish, but rather observe short-term changes in strength to determine the timing of long and short positions. Otherwise, blindly chasing short positions may miss the opportunity or be swept out by the market. In today's trading, it is still necessary for both long and short positions to cooperate and participate, and to be cautious of rebounds.


Gold was hit by a heavy downtrend yesterday, but it rebounded slightly at the beginning of trading today1945Nearby. The main news now still depends on the specific situation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in June and the suspension of interest rate hikes. The main news in the market now leans towards the suspension of interest rate hikes, and the Federal Reserve has also entered a period of silence, so the market is now more sensitive than before. The resumption of tightening after the Bank of Canada suspended interest rate hikes on Wednesday evening is a typical example, as gold prices plummeted30Next week is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and if we restart interest rate hikes like Canada, there is still a lot of room for gold to move below. Returning to today's operations, after experiencing yesterday's sharp decline, gold is currently undergoing a minor correction1954This position supports conversion resistance. Whether trading below this position or a bearish trend during the day, pay attention below1932Just maintain the low support in the front, and operate within this range for the short term within the day.


Golden Operation Suggestion: Above1953Short nearby, stop loss1958, look at the goal1940Nearby; Below1935Long nearby, stop loss1929On the target1950That's it.