Guide Metallographer:4.25Today's gold trend analysis shows that gold maintains a volatile and adjusted trend

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Tuesday(4month25day)The international gold price continues to rebound, but the magnitude is not significant, and cautious investors are waiting for the upcoming US economic data this week to measure the Fed's next policy measures. Federal Reserve5There is a high probability that interest rate hikes will be suspended after the month, but the door to further interest rate hikes may not be completely closed.


MumbaiKedia Commoditiesexecutive directorAjay KediaGold is receiving a boost from the weakening US dollar, and the focus will still be on the next set of US economic data to understand the Fed's policy stance for the rest of this year.


Dallas Fed Monday(4month24day)The report shows that manufacturing activities in Texas4Monthly contraction. This highlights the drag on the economy caused by the Federal Reserve's interest rate tightening cycle. The market expects that the Federal Reserve will5month2-3Interest rate hike at the daily meeting25The probability of a basis point is86%。


Analysts at Wells Fargo believe that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates25This is likely to be the last rate hike by the Federal Reserve in this tightening cycle, which is a basis point. However, the released data indicates that inflationary pressure remains severe. Due to inflation still far above the target, the interest rate statement released by the Federal Reserve will not completely close the door to further interest rate hikes. On the contrary, the Federal Reserve's interest rate statement may raise the possibility of further interest rate adjustments.


Investors are now waiting for the US consumer confidence report scheduled to be released later that day, as well as the first quarter of the US to be released later this weekGDPAnd core personal consumption expenditure in the United States. Corporate Consulting CompanyAir GuideDirector ofMichael LangfordThese reports are more likely to lead to a weakening of the US dollar, which will further push up gold prices in the short term


As Federal Reserve officials enter a lockdown period, gold traders tend to lean towards last Friday(4month21day)Speech by Federal Reserve Governor Cook. She said that monetary policy is entering an uncertain stage, and the adverse wind in the banking industry may put pressure on the prospects of interest rate hikes. Cook predicts that,3Monthly personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Inflation will slow down, but he did not make the same prediction for core personal consumption expenditure.


The rebound of gold price needs to start from2000The psychological barrier of the US dollar and the above key US data were verified because traders struggled with the US debt ceiling worries and the early preparations of the Federal Reserve. In addition to market sentiment deterioration and data/In the consolidation before the event, the US dollar failed to strengthen in the depressed market sentiment, making the gold price continue to rise.


The Financial Times reported over the weekend that central banks around the world are buying gold, stimulated by increasing geopolitical tensions. The report displays,2022The interest rates of central banks in various countries increased year-on-year in152%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00Switzerland3Monthly trade account


　　18:00britain4monthCBIIndustrial order difference


　　21:00U.S.A2monthFHFAMonthly rate of housing price index


　　21:00U.S.A2monthS&P/CS20Annual rate of housing price index in major cities


　　22:00U.S.A3Annualized total monthly sales of new homes


　　22:00U.S.A4Monthly Conference Chamber Consumer Confidence Index


　　22:00U.S.A4Monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index


Technical analysis of gold:


Monday's gold market is in a narrow range of shocks, and the high point is1987The first line is under pressure, and the low point is at1974The US dollar has stabilized. From the daily trend chart, gold prices have changed from2049After the decline, there has been no pattern of a big positive recovery, and the low level repeatedly fluctuates. This kind of oscillation intensifies after the big negative retreat, and there will be subsequent actions to break the low. Current Gold1990The strength of the bulls at the checkpoint is equal, and the bulls in the European market are slightly stronger. Currently, it seems that they are only slightly stronger, only rebounding to1987The checkpoint will retreat to the origin, and the lowest retreat from the opening of the Asian market will be1876After the first line, gold presents a form of shock and slow rise. If the current structure adjustment is continued, the reason will continue downward. Although it is not strong enough at present, it also belongs to a chronic upward trend, which is also a form of bottom stop.


From the trend pattern in the early stage, it can be seen that the continuous decline in the early stage is accompanied by a rebound, with the self shadow line falling and then rebounding upwards, and the secondary decline continues to rise and reach a high point2048On the first line, during the continuous fermentation stage of upright bulls, data news guided the gold high to fall back in one go and lead to a sharp decline. After the sharp decline, the market remained basically in a downward trend, without a second upward trend. Currently, gold relies on1970If the rebound cannot break through and fall for three consecutive times, then there is a high probability of technical rebound testing pressure. Now the market is starting to worry about the Federal Reserve's debt ceiling, and gold bulls are starting to stir up trouble again. Technically, the pressure is concentrated in areas with dense trading volume2008Position, daily moving average pressure2002Position, which means that the bulls will test again today2002reach2008Regional pressure, if the breakthrough here continues to challenge the previous high position, the rebound here cannot break through, and there is a trend of rising and falling at any time. Technical support moves up1980reach1985Area.


Today's operation is very simple, falling back1980reach1985Multiple stops in batches are the latest low1970That's fine, of course radical1988Regional participation means that the stop loss is slightly larger. After all, it is best for long and short stops to be close to the safe edge of the long and short top and bottom. This kind of rebound and bottom rubbing is normal, and it belongs to consuming the bottom bullish position. Once the bottom fluctuates, once it rises, there may be a big positive pull action. Overall, in today's gold short-term operation guidelines, the gold analyst suggests that the main focus should be on a pullback and long, supplemented by a rebound and short, and the short-term focus should be on the above2010-2012Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1980-1982Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　4.25Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2008-2010Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target2000-1995Nearby, break down and take a look1985frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1983-1985Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1995-2005Nearby, break down and take a look2010frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)