ATFX: Japan3monthCPIthe annual rate3.2%Has been declining for two consecutive months

JapanGDPgross value0.49Trillion yuan, ranking fourth globally, second only to the eurozone. The typical characteristics of Japan's macroeconomic system are low unemployment rate and low inflation rate.2The unemployment rate in Japan in the month of is2.6%Although compared to1Of the month2.4There has been a rebound, but it is still in a state of full employment. By comparison, China's unemployment rate is5.3%Unemployment rate in the Eurozone6.6%The unemployment rate in the United States is3.5%Both are higher than Japan's level. With the rise of international oil prices, Japan's low inflation rate is changing. this year1Month, JapanCPIThe highest growth rate reached4.3%, much higher than2%The moderate inflation standard has led market participants to speculate that the Bank of Japan will initiate interest rate hikes. However, as oil prices continue to decline, Japan is2OfCPIThe growth rate has dropped by one percentage point to3.3%。 today7:30, Statistics Bureau of Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan released data,3monthCPIThe growth rate is3.2%Compared to2Monthly decline0.1Percentage points. As of now, Japan's inflation rate has fallen for two consecutive months.


The new governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Shibata, once said in a speech that the Japanese economy has not yet reached a state where significant interest rate hikes are needed. The negative interest rate policy is the foundation of current monetary easing, so it is appropriate to maintain negative interest rates at present. Nowadays, JapanCPIThe slowdown in growth rate confirms the claims of Shibata and Minami.USDJPYSensitive to the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, due to the disappearance of interest rate hikes expected by the Bank of Japan, year-to-dateUSDJPYrise2.1%。 Other non US currencies during the same period have depreciated to varying degrees against the US dollar, as the US dollar index has shown a significant downward trend since the beginning of this year. Long term view,2021Year and2022Year isUSDJPYThe main periods of increase are as follows:11.42%、13.91%。 The main driving factor for the rise is the continued strength of the US dollar index after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. get into2023After the year, the willingness of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates will decrease, and market participants expect5This month will be the last interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve within the year. Benefiting from the weakening of the US dollar index,USDJPYIt is possible to show a bearish trend this year. Overall, the bearish impact of the Bank of Japan's loose policy on the yen is temporary, while the bearish effect of the Federal Reserve's cessation of interest rate hikes on the US dollar index is indeed long-lasting.


The yield of Japanese 10-year treasury bond bonds has been around-0.5%to+0.5%Fluctuation. Latest value0.465%, approximationYCCThe upper limit level allowed by policies means that the bond market is still anticipating a rate hike by the Bank of Japan. The bond yields in other cycles follow the pattern of longer time, higher yields, and there is no upside down problem like the US bond market. from5Starting from the yield of one-year bonds, the yield of the Japanese bond market has entered a positive state, indicating that Japan's negative interest rate policy will continue for about five years.


Although loose monetary policy may lead to a depreciation of the yen, it is good news for the Japanese stock market. Low interest rates have provided a large amount of low-cost financing, driving the Japanese stock market to continue rising. YTD, Nikkei225Accumulated increase in the index9.47%The profit making effect is significant, and it still deserves continuous attention in the future.

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-04-21