Guide Metallographer:3.9今日黄金走势分析，金价反弹无果维持偏空...

Market Review:


InternationalgoldWednesday(3month8day)Maintain a volatile trend, opening price1817.69dollar/Ounces, highest price1824.07dollar/Ounces, lowest price1809.18dollar/Ounces, closing price1820.37dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


Wednesday's announcement of the United States2monthADP就业人数力度额24.210000 people, higher than market expectations2010000 people, the former value is10.610000 people.


　　ADPchief economist Nela Richardson表示，目前劳动力市场出现“两难境地”。我们看到招聘活跃，这对经济和工人都是好事，但工资增长速度仍然很快。工资增长的适度放缓本身不太可能在短期内迅速降低通胀。


Wednesday's announcement of the United States1monthJOLTs执委空缺录得1082.410000 people, higher than market expectations105010000 people, the former value is1101.210000 people.


　　评论称，JOLTS数据再次好于预期，显示有1082.4万个职位空缺。这使得每名失业人员对应的工作岗位比率保持在1.9的高位，表明劳动力市场的通胀压力仍然明显。劳动力市场边际疲软的一个迹象是离职率下降至2.5%。这是近两年来的最低水平。然而，这远不足以支撑“鸽派美联储”的叙述。在重要的非农和CPI报告出炉之前，市场的观点应该不会有太大变化，这可能会决定美联储下次会议加息幅度。


　　美联储主席鲍威尔表示，在有关未来加息的问题上，我不会回答“是”或“否”。我们并没有试图让薪资达到一个特定的水平。美联储不寻求导致经济衰退。全球化的倒退会导致更高的通货膨胀，更高的利率。2%的通胀仍将是我们的目标。通胀无处不在；共同因素是经济的重新开放。美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)Will be on3月会议上公布新的预测。还有更多数据需要分析。仍有一些数据有待公布。重申今年的数据表明更高的终端利率。通胀下降但仍然很高。美联储关注就业空缺、CPI，PPI和就业数据。最终利率可能高于我们的预期。将以即将发布的数据为指导。强调尚未就加息步伐做出决定。


　　周四凌晨公布的美联储经济状况褐皮书显示，2023年初，美国整体经济活动略有增长。总体而言，供应链中断情况继续缓解。消费者支出总体保持稳定，少数地区在通常放缓的时期报告了零售销售的温和到强劲增长。汽车销量变化不大，但库存水平继续改善。一些地区表示，高通胀和高利率继续减少消费者的可支配收入和购买力，一些人对信用卡债务的上升表示担忧。大多数地区的旅游活动仍然相当强劲。制造业活动在一段时期的收缩之后稳定了下来。由于库存极低，房地产市场依然低迷，但在东海岸的一些地区，市场活动出现了超出季节性正常水平的意外上升。在不确定性加剧的情况下，受访者预计未来几个月经济状况不会有太大改善。


　　瑞银的经济学家在一份报告中表示，将于下周二公布的美国2monthCPI可能已经放缓。他们预计2Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPI年率将为6%Below1Of the month6.4%, CoreCPIby5.4%Below1Of the month5.6%。他们说，CPI风险偏向上行，通胀仍然相当高。瑞银还预计，今年的月度通胀增速将逐渐放缓，夏季的整体CPI通胀将达到3%But the coreCPI通胀将高出大约1Percentage points.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve3Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to4.75%-5.00%The probability of the interval is22.1%Interest rate hike50Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is77.9%； reach5Monthly cumulative interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is14.5%Accumulated interest rate increase75Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is58.6%Accumulated interest rate increase100Bps to5.50%-5.75%The probability of the interval is27.0%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　20:30U.S.A2Monthly Challenger Enterprise layoffs


　　21:30From the United States to3month4Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金周三低位震荡修正，小幅下探1809附近启稳。守住此前的低点1805上方震荡运行，没能破低进一步延续弱势，欧美盘反弹在1824.80处再承压收回低位，日线收盘小阳十字K线。局部震荡修正当中，日线第二次接近低点，从结构上来看，日线还是偏空一些，就看破位后的延续，此前的反弹暂时当作蓄势破低下行，短线节奏稍有放缓。


　　4小时图局部低位震荡修正，但好在尾盘仍收在低位，没能收复失地，使得短线今日相对偏弱一些，布林道暂时处于中轨之下运行，短线中轨是多空临界点，此位之下看空依旧，上破再调整思路，短线或许伴随迂回反复的洗盘，临界点的得与失决定短期多空方向。短线在1830之下暂时维持高空，上破再调整思路。1小时图布林道开始收口，本周五还有重磅非农数据。不排除在数据公布前进入收缩整理，空间有所收敛。考虑到目前的结构和形态趋势整体偏空，维持高空是主思路。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1827-1830Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1809-1804Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　3.9Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1827-1830Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1820-1810Nearby, break down and take a look1805frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1806-1809Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1820-1825Nearby, break down and take a look1830frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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