陈嘉哲：今日黄金暴涨暴跌最新行情趋势分析，原油晚间...

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　　goldquotations analysis

Tuesday（8month2日）亚市盘中，现货黄金震荡走高，一度创7month5New high in recent days1780.39附近，日线有望录得五连阳，主要受到美债收益率下跌和美元下跌的支撑，因为市场担忧美国经济衰退，预计美联储将会放缓加息进程，美国ISMmanufacturingPMI创两年新低，美元指数再度刷新逾三周新低，给金价提供上涨动能；不过，本周澳洲联储料将加息50个基点，市场预计英国央行也将加息50个基点，全球多数央行的加息前景仍令黄金多头有所顾忌。

　　目前来看，虽然金价在未来几个交易日上破1800关口的可能性已经显著增加，目标甚至可以看向日线级别布林线上轨1824附近，但短线仍需提防冲高回落并震荡调整的可能性。本交易日留意澳洲联储利率决议和美国6monthJOLTs职位空缺，关注芝加哥联储主席埃文斯和克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特的讲话。

　　现在市场关注重点放在本周五(8month5day)即将公布的美国月度非农就业报告上。由于多家美国大型科技公司已停止招聘流程，市场预计美国劳动力市场7月份料新增25万个工作岗位，增幅低于前值的37.2万个。尽管7月失业率预计维持在3.6%，但美联储激进加息必然会打压就业市场劳工需求，更长期来看，失业率上升将难以避免。美联储官员认为，与价格稳定相一致的失业率水平将明显高于上次经济扩张周期。这意味着需要牺牲更多的工作岗位才能??控制通胀。

　　黄金技术面分析：黄金从周线来看，目前周线三连阳，多头还没有完全放量，黄金从1680reach1780，刚好100美金，虽然力度较大，但上涨算是中期力度，周线放量至少可看周线中轨1830点位，多头力竭之后再看有效的调整空间。日线五连阳，经过周一的上涨，目前刚好拉开布林上轨，形成明显的单边走势，趋势力度中可见日线周期60日均线压制点1800，目前价位在1780，也就是说，在本周小非农ADP数据公布之前，技术门还有上涨空间。

　　黄金从上周周三美盘回踩确定紫色趋势线的支撑后开始了这一波扫荡式探底回升的动作，价格以前一个低点作为防守，向上攀升走高破高，过程虽有空间修正，均以不破前一个低点作为防守进行上涨。昨日周一价格先是破高冲刺1775位置，但动力略显不足的情况下，再度回踩确定支撑1764位置，同样是没有破白盘低点1758，然后继续向上走高重回1770的上方。

　　今日早盘价格依托1770延续走高破高去到1780区域范围。对于早盘延续破高的行情，今日需要关注延续性和低点的防守。守住低点，保持延续性，继续沿用守低破高看加速的动作。若是破了低点后震荡走低，则容易出现早盘急涨没好事，难延续的行情了。小时图上，黄金也进入技术性的高位，触及趋势线压力，也逼近区间上沿，技术指标也显示超买，虽然早盘行情出现一波上涨，冲破1780，但似乎跟涨动能并不是很强。日内可以借助技术性看调整进行搏短空参与，但基本面可能带来的不确定风险更大，故如果参与空，仅限超短线尝试级别，切莫盲目看空，因为近期基本面很有可能爆发意外的风险，即台海相关消息。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上陈嘉哲建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期关注1785-1790Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1762-1757Frontline support.

Author's message:

The answer to all questions is never unique and unchanging. Whether the market is going up or down, you cannot control it yourself. Only by keeping up with the pulse of the market can you avoid being eliminated. The market cannot always go up or down, and what is certain is that it will always go right. Risk is an objective, inevitable, and under certain conditions, it also has certain regularity, so we should pay more attention to risk control in operation.

This article is provided by Chen Jiazhe. I interpret the world economic news, analyze the global investment trends, andcrude oil、黄金、白银等大宗商品等有深入的研究以上内容属于个人建议，因网络发文有时效性，仅供参考，风险自担，转载请注明出处。