Dingsheng Jinshi:7.20午间黄金走势分析，担忧全球央行激进加息...

What are the recent news impactsgoldTrend? Where is the trend of gold going?


Wednesday(7month20day)Asian market intraday, goldfutures基本持稳，期金现报1711dollar/盎司附近。受近几个月美联储积极升息计划及美元上扬影响。金价一直未能在经济衰退担忧中展现出避险地位。近日虽在美联储本月加息100基点预期大幅降温的影响下，打击了美元，同时目前市场又预计欧洲央行决策者将在周四的会议上讨论是否升息50点，以抑制创纪录高位的通胀，并开始更接近美联储的加息步伐，再度加大美元多头压力，令金价止跌并获得喘息机会。


　　在过去三个交易日中，市场参与者一直在积极抛售美元，导致美元指数大幅走低。尽管14日美元在反弹中触及最高值，使该指数升至盘中高点109.12，但目前已经回跌至106.57。然而美元疲软却未提振金价，高收益率美债仍是避险市场的首选，而美国市场过半不信明年陷入衰退，更是给黄金迎头一击。即使欧洲央行在加息方面表现得更为温和，但欧洲央行和其他全球央行不可避免地会在某个时候变得更加积极地对抗更高的通胀，并效仿美联储的榜样。在过去三届FOMC会议上，美联储在每次会议上都加息，每次加息幅度都大于之前的加息幅度。美联储在3Monthly interest rate increase25Basis points,5Monthly interest rate increase50Basis points,6Monthly interest rate increase75个基点。外界普遍预计，美联储将在7month27dayFOMC会议后再次加息至少75Basis points.


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金昨日虽有回弹，但上方仅至1718一线，随后陷入横盘震荡，且幅度极窄，日线最终收得一小阳星线。本周黄金同时具备技术性超跌反弹条件，以及美指下跌带带来的动能，但实际走势并未反弹，而是以低位窄幅震荡方式来进行消化，如此异常状态不得不要加以防范，导致这种现象出现的可能性还是与市场对美联储加息预期影响有关，市场多头激进性未能被激发起来。目前美指已经跌至预期支撑位附近，而黄金并未上涨，选择窄幅横盘震荡，也就给短线走势带来很大的选择性方向，即在下周美联储利率决定前，如果美指一直偏弱震荡，那么黄金或可能出现一定的补涨，但空间就不会很大了，毕竟本周状态已经表明当前多头是极度消极状态的。如果美联储利率决定前，美指出现一定的回弹，那么黄金不排除再出现一波释放下跌的风险，同时也可以理解为对利率决定利空预期的提前释放，届时下方或可能再破1700，也不排除回撤1685-80一带的可能，但是结合时间点来看，进一步下跌的可能性又较小，所以主观思路还是期待行情能够出现一定的补涨，这主要还是技术性的回弹需要，对于后期分析操作上会更有利一些。


　　小时图来看，黄金演变为小三角区间的极窄幅震荡，区间基本锁定在1720-00，缩减则上下各缩5美金空间，如果走出这个区间，短线行情可能会有延伸，但如果下破，则空间上不好预判，如果上破则符合技术需要，上方还是可期待1730、1740、1750附近压力回弹测试。结合日线以及小时图结构，日内暂时被迫看横盘震荡，可保留看回弹预期，但必须建立行情异动再跌的风险预期。日内上方关注5Daily line1710争夺，短线主压还是关注10Daily line1720-22压力，下方继续关注1705、1700支撑测试。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上鼎盛金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方关注1718-1720USD resistance, follow below1700-1702USD support. You also need to adapt to market changes, so while operating, investment friends must control their positions and stop loss issues, strictly set stop losses, and do not resist single operations. The recent market turbulence has been significant, with opportunities and risks coexisting. Control risks and maximize returns.


　　7.20Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1718-1720Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss5Points, target1712-1708Nearby, break down and take a look1705frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1705-1708Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss5Points, target1715-1720附近（建议仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎！）


　　crude oilTechnical analysis:


　　石油经过123一路震荡下跌，基本日线双顶形态成立，乌克兰危机前所有品种都是回到当初价格，现在唯一石油还有测试77reach83区域，一直说消息最终影响波动幅度和力度，不会改变趋势，哪里来到哪里去，这个和前期分析一致，米国最后禁止石油进口，最大利多出现没有突破130It indicates that stress manifests when things reach their extreme. Rebound and continue to short to meet the second gap92区域其次85Region, which means100Give you a light warehouse without hesitation, even if it's empty1Ten thousand dollars0.1The layout is also acceptable, and the total warehouse should not exceed0.3Then wait for the market news to ease, or the bulls will experience a final crazy flash crash, following the bearish trend40一样走势，现在加速赶顶，你要做的，就是不要追多了，防止突然开启下跌。


Crude oil operation strategy:


Radical97Participated in the empty space nearby, encountered again in the stable midline104.8Near the area, the central line has been opened for short selling, after all, the pressure is gradually moving downwards, and the following is running92reach85Go. First encounter85reach80Multiple regional options.


Serve as an analyst and commentator for well-known financial channels such as Sina Finance and Globalforeign exchange》Professional contributors to several well-known financial forums such as "Huitong Net" and "Zhongjin Net", specializing in short, medium, and long term operations of gold, crude oil, and silver. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market. Suggestions are for reference only; This article is original by Dingsheng Jinshi, who carefully writes every analysis and conveys valuable investment concepts. If there is any similarity, it is purely plagiarism. Readers should be discerning and respect originality!