Xiao Qiansheng:3.10Gold and SilverTD最新分析及操作

   　国际goldLatest Market Analysis



Tuesday(3month9day)，现货黄金上涨逾1%，重回1700美元关口上方，因美债收益率下跌逾5个基点，美元指数自日内创下的三个半月高位92.506回落。但交易者仍对本周收益率可能进一步上升保持警惕。首先，美元超卖非常严重，净投机性空头头寸扎堆，看空情绪接近极限，市场不得不重新押注；其次，美国利率上升增加了美元兑其它货币、尤其是对欧元和日元等货币的吸引力；最后，与此相关的是，与其他G10货币国家相比，美国最近的经济增长势头正在改善。贵金属整体受实际利率拖累明显，名义利率受益于通胀预期和货币政策会提前收紧的共同作用，超出了通胀预期的上行速度，10Y美债收益率最高已经上破1.6%的水平，实际利率从-1%左右回升至接近-0.6%附近，也带动了黄金创下过去半年来新低。



　　黄金技术面：黄金从日线上来看，冲高虚破MA5Daily moving average1710，但是并未能企稳收在上方，最终失败回撤，日线以长上影线实体阴柱收尾，布林带三轨仍然是开口向下发展，金价承压运行于MA5日均线下方，其他各期均线呈空方排列，配合短期金价的弱势形态运行，KDJDead fork,MACD死叉，绿能持续放量，黄金目前仍然处于极端弱势，今日操作仍然顺势做空!Follow AboveMA5Daily moving average1714Nearby resistance, pay attention below2020year6month5Daily low1670Near.



　　四小时来看，布林带三轨维持开口向下发展，短期金价运行在布林带下轨附近，并且承压于各期均线下方，5/10日均线死叉向下延伸，配合金价弱势运行，彰显了短期空方势能强势，其他各期均线呈现空头形态排列，KDJ高位死叉乡下运行，macdFast slow line0轴附近小幅度的死叉运行，绿能维持快节奏的小幅度放量，整体来看，上行严重缺乏动能，且上方存在较强的压力，金价在跌破1687双底支撑后继续刷新新低，所以今日4小时上我们仍然继续看空黄金。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上萧乾升建议高空为主，低多为辅。上方关注1726-1730One line of resistance, pay attention below1696-1700Frontline support.

   　　纸白银、crude oilMarket trend analysis:



During the day, the US dollar index continued its upward trend, and silver as a whole fluctuated downward along the short-term moving average. Under the strong pressure of the US dollar index, silver was unable to maintain a strong upward trend, and the market did not break the pressure above5.7Starting to enter the technical callback. fromKFrom the perspective of line technology, there is a decline and engulfment pattern at the hourly level, and a short-term correction is inevitable. Silver4The hourly cycle is currently in a fluctuating downward trend, starting fromKFrom a structural perspective, the current downward trend of the oscillation is still ongoing,KThe line runs on the lower track of the Bollinger belt, and theoretically it also runs in a falling or oscillating structure, with the high point in the figure5.6-5.76Element is pressure,5.1-5.0Yuan is the support.4According to the hourly chart, due to the early stage5.0元支撑并没有受到破坏，所以萧乾升认为纸白银回踩过后反弹上涨概率较大。白银短线下行趋势较为明显，但随着动能的逐渐释放，低位反弹概率亦较大，操作上依旧低多布局思路为主。



　　原油方面：目前油价受益于经济复苏的预期进一步走强，特别是美国财政刺激法案的推出，进一步让市场对原油需求的预期增强。再加上美国原油库存正以史上最快速度减少，油价涨势仍然会继续，但是强劲的美元和沙特石油设施遭到袭击导致石油供应中断的担忧消退限制了油价上涨，所以日内油价延续了短期下跌的态势。



————How can we turn losses into profits?



　　1、首先要做到的就是仓位管理，止损和仓位是投资者必修的两门课。好多人修到现在也没能顺利的毕业，不是理论知识不够，是实践中做不到。不管什么时候都不要重仓操作，不要指望重仓去博一夜暴富，不现实。这里不是卖彩票，我们不是堵运气，是运用科学的方法来做到长期的财富积累。



　　2Secondly, we need to learn our own methods or follow a teacher we believe in.



Teaching someone to fish is better than teaching them to fish. I have always believed that we are imparting knowledge, and it is best to be able to master investment skills on our own. Overreliance on others' analysis is not a good thing. Only through continuous exploration and learning, and possessing one's own trading analysis methods and trading systems, can one survive in this market for the long term. What others analyze is only for reference, one should learn to be responsible for one's own account! Of course, not everyone has time to learn, and in this situation, one can firmly follow a teacher they believe in. Take a look at this teacher's strategy, listen to that teacher's strategy, and in the end, you become completely disoriented. Long term following one's trusted teacher can also ensure profitability.



　　3Don't build a warehouse when hesitating.



　　自己都犹豫不决，看不清方向，还茫然的下手就是在堵运气。这样子做进去还不如不做，宁可错过也不要做错。在自己看不清方向的时候，最好的方法就是坐下来冷静的分析观望，而不是急忙忙的下手，生怕别人跟你抢钱一样！市场不缺机会，错过了这一波还有下一波，错过了下一波还有下下一波，永无止境。所以完全没必要为错过的行情惋惜！有的人手上没仓位就跟丢了魂一样的，总感觉少了什么。然后控制不住自己焦躁的内心，匆忙进场，结局往往是不理想的，永远跟不上市场的节奏，心态源于信心,Generally, confident people do not have a bad mentality. The same goes for investing. Without confidence, one cannot place orders decisively, and of course, they will miss out on opportunities to make money!