王德诚：新年新征程，24日螺纹铁矿石豆粕甲醇期货行情分析

    A new year and a new beginning, shedding the burdens of yesterday and embarking on a new journey. I won't say much about the words of blessings here. Let me talk about practical issues from a practical perspective. The first point is that after paying salaries during the Chinese New Year, some investment friends should not be swayed. Investment carries risks and still needs to be treated rationally. The author strongly recommends that you do not invest too much money in trading. The second point is the old saying that you must bring stop loss trading, otherwise you will always be trapped. Decoupling is really a detestable thing. If you encounter unilateral market trends, it is easy to sell your orders. The third point is that as long as your orders are profitable15If it is more than one point, it is important to remember to bring a breakeven loss to avoid profitable orders turning into losses in the end. The fourth point is that some of your families grow apples, soybeans, and raise chickens to make glassfuturesBig shot, don't assume that you are familiar with the spot market and have a long-term layout of heavy positions. Heavy positions may not yield good results. If you don't believe it, take a look at Fu Xiaojun. No matter how big your funds are, you cannot compete with the control of professional main institutions. Heartfelt words, I hope all of you can listen.

   好了，言归正传。现在开始分析螺纹、铁矿石、豆粕、甲醇主力期货的日内行情走势

   Thread Main Contract:

    基本面上，上海螺纹4640Steel billets4250Steel plant operating rate66.44%Social inventory100910000 tons, steel factory inventory512万吨。钢材开工水平触顶回落，利润继续回升仍偏低，中上游库存补库基本体现，但去库存压力仍大，旺季需求未开启，资产氛围面临高波动，05合约贴水提前修复关注。2021供给侧改革结束，政策未来炒作能力有限，宏观经济系统性风险仍有望第二轮显现，房地产投资生产需求后期须关注周期性转淡，以及全球疫情动向及对经济的影响变化及季节性生产动态。资产氛围带动通胀预期进一步体现，关注11年历史高位。技术面上，螺纹2105合约周二冲高回落小阴线报收4552(Last day's price)4582），期价破高反跌，短期或难延续强势。短线操作上，笔者王德诚建议前期低位多单暂止盈兑现或设保护减持，新仓视盘中冲涨乏力逢高试空，上方阻力4580frontline.

　铁矿主力合约：

　 基本面上：铁矿石普氏指数172.2，现货青岛港PB粉1167，港口库存12709万吨，钢厂铁矿石库存可用天数30天。钢厂开工需求高位回落，受制于季节性和利润不佳，炉料库存充裕，钢厂矿石库存健康。外矿去年供给受限，今年复产修复，供给2021仍有望边际转暖，港口库存当前低位已逐渐开启回升。矿石高低品级价差回落，钢厂红利出净高品代替焦炭优势渐弱，废钢对矿石亦有替代作用。外盘矿石回升，现货成交回暖有限，基差修复转负。全球终端需求进一步向上打压，美国粗钢产量锐减，后期铁矿石供需环境仍不乐观。人民币中长期仍存在贬值预期但短线升值，海运进口成本延续低位。技术面上铁矿2105合约周二平开低走中阴线报收1107(Last day's price)1139），形态属于顶部阴包阳线，短期易调难涨。短线操作上，笔者建议依托1141一线逢高做空，如有盈利一直持有，看行情给不给机会能一直慢慢拿成中线。

　

　

   Soybean meal main contract:

　　基本面上，沿海豆粕价格3650-3800element/吨，较上周五涨10-50element/Tons.2monthUSDA报告调增美豆出口(巴西产区降水，延迟收割)，期末库存调减2000万蒲至1.2亿蒲，为13/14年以来最低水平。报告符合市场预期，中性偏多。国内方面，面临即将到来的春节后的开工和南美大豆的上市，油厂出售远月基差合同并增仓套保，后市或迎来下游节后补库周期。技术面上，豆粕2105合约周二快速拉涨大阳线报收3591(Last day's price)3505），验证了昨天提出的“形态属于震荡偏强，且日线指标有所修正，当前位置一旦突破将形成涨势”这一判断，短线操作上，笔者建议顺势而为逢低做多，下方支撑3535Near the front line.

   甲醇主力合约：

    基本面上，甲醇西北主流出货维持在1700-2010element/吨；环渤海地区山西高端涨50Yuan in1810-2050element/吨；淮海地区鲁南高端涨10Yuan in2210-2230element/吨；华中地区河南涨20Yuan in2100element/吨；西南高端涨50Yuan to2080-2250element/吨；华东港口涨20-30Yuan in2410-2520element/吨；华南港口涨10Yuan in2430-2440element/吨。今日国内甲醇市场局部走高。西北市场报盘坚挺，但贸易商接货相对谨慎，对高价略显抵触，区域内新单成交情况一般。在上游企业推涨影响下，内地部分地区报盘小幅跟涨，但下游接货多维持刚需，观望心态明显。港口方面，期货偏强震荡，港口现货价随盘小涨，但场内整体询盘有限，商谈氛围一般。技术面是哪个，短线国内甲醇市场或偏强震荡为主。后期仍需关注外围宏观影响因素、下游需求情况、期货盘面走势、上下游库存情况及运费水平等。短线操作上，笔者王德诚建议逢低做多，看向前期高点2562Nearby, support below2418and2390。

    Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat Sync on your phone:15851503763。