Zhou Hongjin:3.1黄金原油全线崩跌！黄金原油周一开盘走势操作布局

Summary:gold行情走势、黄金交易策略、黄金行情解析、crude oilTrend analysis and crude oil operation suggestions
　　以急躁的心态做投资，失败是必然的结果。急躁和缺乏耐心是很多投资者的通病。他们怕踏空，怕错过每一个似是而非的机会，很大一部分资产就在频繁的交易中被损耗。耐心是成功的重要素养。在我们的投资过程中，很多时候需要我们耐心等待。市场不明朗、价格没跌到位，要忍得住不买；价格没涨到位，要忍得住不卖，无论是买进、卖出还是持有，都应该有耐心和控制力。就如非洲草原的狮子，在没有猎物的时候，更多的是在草丛中慢慢的等，很有耐心地观察周围情况，直到猎物进入伏击范围才迅疾出手。
　　黄金、原油走势回顾：
　　2020year2月，国际现货黄金走势虎头蛇尾，本月最后一个交易日金价重挫近3.6%，完全回吐先前巨大涨幅，终盘收跌0.22%，月线终结二连阳。很多投资者出于对不确定性的担忧，在买股票的同时买入黄金以作为对冲。全球股市本月最后一周惨遭血洗，蒸发近6万亿美元，美股道指和标普500指数重挫近12%，投资者为填补股市保证金，进而出脱黄金市场盈利头寸。国际油价连续第二个月狂挫逾10%，布油创下2017year7New low since the beginning of the month48.94dollar/桶。因全球公共卫生形势严重恶化，能源需求前景蒙上重大阴影，且OPEC+对于未来进一步加大力度减产迟迟无法达成共识，致使市场恐慌情绪失控。
　　展望下周：
　　下周市场将继续受到全球卫生事件的影响，特别是事件在欧洲、北美和中东传播的最新消息。世界卫生组织周五将世界各地的卫生事件威胁评估提高到“非常高”的水平，指出这种病毒已经蔓延到至少49个国家。与此同时，在卫生事件蔓延之际，全球经济活动受到拖累，投资者开始关注主要央行是否将开始新一轮大规模宽松周期，尤其是美股暴跌倒逼美联储（FED）降息的可能性。芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的美联储观察工具目前显示，3month18日降息25The probability of one basis point is52.8%Interest rate reduction50The probability of one basis point is47.2%。如果全球疫情总体形势保持不变，更不用说继续恶化，可能会迫使美联储降息。
　　超级星期二！另一个推动金价上涨的因素是美国总统大选。下周将有15个州的民主党初选。民主党候选人伯尼·桑德斯很有可能胜出。
　　经济数据方面，下周美国将公布关键的2月非农就业报告、1Monthly durable goods orders and2Monthly manufacturing industryISM数据。在疫情引发全球恐慌之际，经济数据的影响可能被淡化。此外，央行动态方面，周二（3month3日）澳洲联储（RBA）将公布利率决议；周三（3month4日）加拿大央行（BOC）将公布利率决定，市场预计3月份会议将按兵不动。

1、 Analysis of the trend of spot gold

　　刚刚过去的一周，黄金可谓“先甜后苦，乐极生悲”，金价周初一度受避险浪潮助推而暴涨至2013year1Monthly high1689.21dollar/盎司，但随后市场急转直下，周五（2month28日）金价暴跌4%，自日高最多暴跌超80USD, setting a new record7年来最大跌幅，一度跌穿1570USD level to2month12Daily low1562.73dollar/盎司，周图最终以长阴线收跌报1644.70dollar/ounce.

　　技术面来看，金价反弹多次在1660附近遇阻后展开回调，周五美盘，金价加速下行，连续失守多道关键支撑，失守1600整数关口，一度狂泻80USD to1563.07dollar/盎司，最大跌近5%，创下近七年来的最大单日跌幅，日线录得一根大阴线，MACD即将结成死叉，KDJDead fork,5日均线向下拐头，空头明显占据上风，初步支撑在周五低点1563.07Nearby, further support at2month6Daily low point1552.69Nearby, the Bollinger Line's lower track supports1530.04附近，该位置支撑相对较强，若失守该位置，则新的下行空间将被打开；2month3Daily high point1592.11已经转换为上方初步阻力所在，进一步阻力在1600Integer level,1month8Resistance to daily highs1611.42附近，若收复该位置削弱短线看空信号；综合来看，下周一操作思路上周鸿金（zh66646）My personal suggestion is to prioritize high altitude and prioritize low altitude;

Focus on resistance above:1592.11；1600.00；

Focus on support below: 1563.07；1552.69；

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2、 Analysis of the trend of US crude oil

　　刚刚过去的一周，由于卫生事件恐慌不断冲击风险资产，本周美布两油双双遭受重挫。美国WTIContinuous crude oil production6Falling in trading days, refreshing2018year12Low since the end of the month43.85dollar/Barrel, weekly chart plummets by over16%, creating2008The largest weekly decline since the end of the year. At the same time, Brent crude oil has also been continuously6Falling in trading days, refreshing2017year7The lowest level since the beginning of the month48.94dollar/Barrel, weekly chart also suffered a significant decline14%, creating2016year1month15The largest weekly decline since the beginning of the day.

　　技术面来看，公共卫生事件恐慌重创油市，原油本周下跌16%, lowest touch43.85dollar/Bucket2008year12The largest weekly decline since the beginning of the month; Daily continuous6Daily closing yin,MACDandKDJDead cross operation, short positions on the moving average, and there is still a risk of further decline in oil prices; Preliminary support in2019year1month2Daily low point44.35Nearby, Friday low point support at43.85Nearby, if the oil price falls behind this position, further support will be provided to look towards it2018Annual low point42.36Location. However, the poor demand outlook will increaseOPEC+There is a possibility of expanding the scale of production reduction next week, and Saudi Arabia is also seeking to further expand the scale of production reduction100Ten thousand days/Barrel, which may limit the short-term downward space of oil prices; AndKDJApproaching oversold areas, if oil prices persist44.35To support the upper level, we need to be vigilant about the possibility of low oil price fluctuations and mild rebounds. The initial resistance above is below the Bollinger Line46.81Nearby,5Daily moving average resistance48.34Nearby,2month3Resistance at daily low points49.31附近，油价需要重新运行在该位置上方才能有效削弱目前的看空信号；综合来看，下周一操作思路上周鸿金（zh66646）My personal suggestion is to prioritize high altitude and prioritize low altitude;

Focus on resistance above:46.81；47.74；

Focus on support below:44.35；43.85；

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Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the author's personal opinion and does not constitute specific operations. The article has a lag effect, and based on this, profit and loss are the responsibility of the author. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market.

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　　为什么别人盈利能够轻而易举，为什么你盈利就难于上青天，很简单，因为别人轻车熟路，而你却盲目乱撞；

　　为什么跟随老师依旧改变不了亏损的结局，因为你的老师只是空有一身理论，实践起来却手忙脚乱；

　　为什么总是亏，因为陷入沼泽的你，心里只有恐惧和着急，再怎么挣扎依旧徒劳无功。

　　为什么爆仓总是你，因为你一步重仓操作就跌入了布满利刃的深坑，直接结束。

　　盲目的介入市场，随意的寻找老师，慌乱的心态，不控制风险的操作等种种因素或许是你失败的原因，即使遍体鳞伤，即使待在市场上不开心，但面临高额利润的终点，你离开市场是否甘心，半途而废的你是否又开心？害怕继续亏损，只是对自己没信心的借口，各行各业经验最重要，术业有专攻，包括我在内谁前期还没交过学费？我能从亏损中走到终点，我相信你只不过差几个阶段。——有感而发，献给那些在亏损中挣扎迷茫的投资者。解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资趋势，对黄金、原油投资有兴趣却无从下手或者已经在接触却并不理想的朋友，订阅关注“周鸿金”（zh66646）Get the latest financial information, daily market trend analysis, real-time trading strategies, and medium to long term layout.
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