MBG Markets：疲软数据拖累欧元，避险情绪推升美指

　　
降息预期现分歧，避险情绪助推美指(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达25Individual points, closing up0.13%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)The Bolin track tends to rise, and the exchange rate continues to operate above the track; Daily lineMA5,10构金叉，MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能持续增大；日线RSI(14)to59-60一线运行，距超买区间下沿仍有一定空间。上方阻力97.75, lower support97.20。
　　
Fundamentals:花旗研究报告称，由于6月非农就业报告表现向好，贸易局势趋于缓和，因此预计美联储或在7月会议上持观望态度；美联储静默期在即，本周是美联储改变市场预期的最后机会。瑞银集团称，预计7月份降息的可能性为100％，并且到今年年底将有近90％的可能性至少降息两次。摩根士丹利将全球股票资产配置权重降至“低配”，为自2014年开始跨资产策略研究以来的首次，引发昨日全球股市崩跌，避险情绪助推美指走高。
　　
前景展望恶化，欧元低位续跌(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar27Points, closing down0.1%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)三轨渐趋构下行通道；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10Double track trend downward, exchange rate under pressureMA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日缩减，但DIFF、DEA双线仍持续下行；日线RSI(14)to38-39一线运行。短期止跌建议以连续两个交易日收于MA5上方为信号，下方潜在支撑观察76.4%Callback bit1.1185Location.
　　
Fundamentals:Germany5月季调后工业产出月率环比增长0.3%，逊于市场预期0.4%，前值小幅下修至-2%；工业产出同比缩减-3.7%，显著逊于预期及前值。欧元区7monthSentix投资者信心指数录得-5.8，逊于预期0.1及前值-3.3, creating2014year11月来最低水平。欧洲央行执委科尔：当下比过去任何时候都更需要宽松的政策，若有需要，欧洲央行可以重启量化宽松。瑞银集团：预计欧洲央行将在9月份重启向银行提供廉价贷款计划，预计要么降低利率，要么重新启动债券购买。
　　
市场信心低迷，英镑低位盘整(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达40Points, closing down0.07%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续贴近下轨运行；日汇价持续承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column has decreased compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to31-32一线运行，贴近超卖区间。汇价若有效破位1.2500整数关口，将破坏构筑头肩底形态的可能。止跌信号建议关注5日均线得失，下方支撑1.2475。
　　
Fundamentals:市场消息：英国74%的保守党人称将支持英国前外交大臣约翰逊担任保守党领导人。英国首相候选人约翰逊表示，英国将在10month30日之前就脱欧达成一份中止协议，并在自由贸易期间解决北爱尔兰及其边境的问题。英国零售商协会(BRC)According to a survey, the UK12个月总体销售均值增速为0.6%Created from1995year12月以来最低水平。花旗银行：英镑兑欧元和美元当前的汇率反映了英国无协议脱欧和进一步放松货币政策的较高可能性，但放松财政政策及其通过经济信心和资本流动带来的积极影响并未反映在汇率中；避免无协议脱欧和放松财政政策可能推动英镑上涨5-10%。
　　
　　
　　
Risk Statement and Important Notes
transactionforeign exchangeMargin and contract for difference trading involve high risks and may not be suitable for all investors. You may encounter losses exceeding the principal amount during trading.
The above content is general information and does not take into account your investment objectives, financial condition, or other needs; It does not constitute any invitation to invest or buy or sell financial products. Before you make an investment decision,MBG MarketsWe suggest that you seek independent financial advice. Meanwhile,MBG MarketsWe shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses arising from the use of this review/Liability or obligation resulting from or damage.
You are making a decision to selectMBG MarketsPlease read carefully before providing the financial productsMBG MarketsAnd confirm full understanding of the transaction in accordance with the terms and conditions and product disclosure statementMBG MarketsRisks related to financial products.