Li Wen Dianjin:7.6 后市黄金走势分析及操作建议附解套策略

The way to trade lies in change, which leads to communication, communication leads to achievement, and achievement leads to success; The fundamental essence of trading lies in stability, striving for progress while maintaining stability, and then avoiding risks and disruptions in order to lock in profits and avoid losses! The teacher is not a god. It is unrealistic to simply be accurate, go short and go up, and invest all the time facing certain risks. What the teacher needs to do is to constantly control risks based on the specific positions of the students, minimize risks, and consolidate our profits!
　　
Information analysis:
　　
Friday Beijing Time（7month5Day)20:30，美国劳工部公布了美国6月非农报告。美国6Increase in non agricultural employment after the monthly adjustment22.4万人，高于预期的增加16万人，前值下修至增加7.2Ten thousand people. United States6Monthly unemployment rate recorded3.7%，高于预期值和前值的3.6%。非农报告出炉后，国际goldfall drastically1400dollar/盎司，美元指数短线上扬逾20点，触及6month20日以来最高水平，非美货币普遍下挫。此外，在股债方面，美国十年期国债收益率扩大涨势，触及2.013%。 U.S.Astock market indexfutures延续跌势，道指期货跌0.4%S&P500指数期货跌0.49%，纳指期货跌0.68%。
　　
　　有分析认为，6月就业数据创下了自1月以来的最佳月度增幅，该数据使得美联储几乎不可能在7月两次降息，甚至为美联储在未来三周内的保持"耐心"立场打下了基础，粉碎了市场对即将到来的宽松周期的希望。
　　
　　[Non agricultural pre harvest] according toCMEFederal Reserve Observation:
　　
Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate reduction25Bps to2.00%-2.25%的概率为74.5%Interest rate reduction50The probability of a basis point is25.6%； reach9Monthly interest rate reduction25Bps to2.00%-2.25%的概率为26.3%Interest rate reduction50Basis points and75个基点的概率分别为57.1%and16.5%。
　　
　　[非农后] according toCMEFederal Reserve Observation:
　　
Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate reduction25Bps to2.00%-2.25%的概率为83.7%Interest rate reduction50The probability of a basis point is16.3%； reach9Monthly interest rate reduction25Bps to2.00%-2.25%的概率为28.0%Interest rate reduction50Basis points and75个基点的概率分别为61.8%and10.2%。
　　
　　非农风暴持续上演！市场出现“膝跳反应”——随后在21:50，国际黄金跌逾1.8%, falling below1390dollar/盎司；国际白银价格跌破15dollar/盎司，日内跌逾2%, creating6month19日以来新低；国际铂金跌3%，铂金期货跌3.82%。COMEX黄金期货主力连续合约跌幅扩大至近2%。
　　
Gold market analysis:
　　
　　市场在变化中存在规律，我们需要做的就是不断跟踪的时候的变化，寻找其中存在的走势规律，跟随市场趋势。当发现技术形态发生改变的情况下及时调整交易策略。今天早上黄金开盘上破1422昨天日线的高点，出现了上升的结构形态。但是黄金触及1424之后回调出现的走势迟迟没有吻合看涨的K线形态。这就不由的让李文点金重新考虑市场的走势变化。通过仔细的分析和跟踪我们发现黄金冲高回落虽然是震荡下行的特点。但是从4Hours and1HourlyK线形态上看却是发现高点不断下跌的单边走势。看到这个信号，下午李文点金及时的再做出非农操作思路的跟进。并建议1414以单边属性特点布局空单，目标看1400价位则如期兑现。功夫不负苦心人，今晚非农的成功主要还是今天行情跟踪到位，还有我们分析体系的灵活性。市场在变的时候我们能够在第一次反应过来并调整应对方案。
　　
Gold1439高点与本次上升1437高点构成双顶，下一周黄金恐将继续下挫，尤其关注美元指数走向的朋友知道，美元今晚重新回到97.4关口，这轮黄金的拉升更多是地缘政治风险导致的避险。总体来说美元未走熊，国际经济还在缓慢发展，黄金延续牛市的动能依然还不足。随着本周黄金的冲高回落，高位震荡，下一周有机会继续下跌调整。目前黄金处于反弹想上的走势中，所以接下来我们需要的关注今晚的收线以及这几个点位：1400、1405、1410
　　
Reference suggestions for gold operations:
　　
　　1Gold rebound1400关口不破布局空单，止损5USD, target1395-1390-1385Near the area
　　
　　2、若是黄金上破1400关口反弹到1405区域附近在跟进空单，止损1410, Objective1400-1398Near the area, hold a break and take a look1395-1390Near the area
　　
Note: The above is Li Wen Dianjin's own opinion, and everything is based on a firm offer,The market is constantly changing, and for more market analysis and timely operation, you can find Li Wen Dian Jin Weixin:ldw6659 Li Wen Dianjin, if you trust me, I will definitely be responsible for you
　　
　　1Firstly, why do we set orders?
　　
　　我认为套单的原因无非两点：对行情趋势把握不对，方向做反。不执行严格止损，擅自调动止损点位
　　
　　我一直强调严格止损！止损是用来减小损失的，不是用来防止损失的。道理很多人明白，但是无论强调多少遍总会有人不执行。就好比你告诉一个吸烟有害健康，能理解但不能克制。很多投资朋友空仓的时候比谁都清楚，但是只要单子一做进去，就被盘面走势左右了，反向两三个点，就像热锅上的蚂蚁；亏损十几个点就觉得补仓的机会来了，结果补仓后趋势依旧延续，这时不自主的就会把止损点调大，结果单边爆发一下就被套住，简单的说这就是技术和心态不成熟造成的。
　　
　　2Why do orders get deeper and deeper as they get more complicated?
　　
A friend who has been trapped in a single order has set a stop loss, but when the stop loss point is reached, they are reluctant to be eliminated. They repeatedly suggest that their market is about to decline, waiting for a slight decline before being eliminated, even if it is a little further, I will be eliminated......In fact, it can only be oneself deceiving oneself, and after a slight pullback, one feels that there is still room for further pullback, but the result is still an increase that cannot be made. I don't believe that there is still a chance for a pullback in the future. Just like this, boiling the frog in warm water, sinking deeper and deeper, only to wake up and regret it after being swept out or sold out. But it's hard to buy a thousand dollars, the market will never give you a chance. I have said many times that investment is not speculation, even if you10There are nine small gains in this investment, but one deep set can take you back to before liberation!
　　
　　3What to do after adding stop loss to the reverse order and how to operate it?
　　
　　以我的经验来看投资者在单子止损后一般会怯场，这是所有投资者的通病。但你们却不知道这反而恰恰是挽回损失的最佳时机。当然，我认为做出这种决定的必须是有把握的，如果是盲目的，那将毫无意义。止损后，建议可以在高点位反向做单，这样不仅避免了套单的风险，同时还能腾出资金来抓取后面赚钱的机会，一举两得。
　　
Special reminder: Investors need to recognize that for ordinary investors, most of the time they should focus on watching and patiently wait for the best opportunity to sell. Avoiding frequent trading is one of the recognized winning secrets. Do not attempt to capture all fluctuations, nor expect to grasp every segment of the market. Judging the market trend is just one part of trading. Investors also need to have a reverence for the market, remember trading discipline, and strictly control their positions, reduce greed, overcome fear, and try to maintain a calm mind when trading.
　　
Full guidance time: early7：00In the early morning of the next day2：00（周末也从不停歇，可供随时咨询）市有风险，投资需谨慎。
　　
Wen/Li Wen Dianjin(ldw6659）