Shan Chenjin:6.26黄金破底的可能性有多大？后市行情怎么看？

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Shan Chenjin:6.26gold破底的可能性有多大？后市行情怎么看？


周一，围绕贸易战的忧虑仍然驱动着市场走势，日元一度飙升，而美股道指曾跳水近500点，但在纽约时段尾盘，美国总统特朗普的首席贸易顾问纳瓦罗的一番言论令股市短线急剧反弹，而日元也回吐此前多数涨幅。尽管过去一段时间美元表现稳固，但随着贸易战忧虑的加剧，美元已经显示疲态,不过于美元关联性极强的黄金却没有出现上涨迹象。

就目前的状况来看，虽然近期黄金市场表现低迷，但多头们也不是已经完全放弃，从盘面上看，显然不是单边下跌的一个行情，最多算作震荡下行。我个人认为黄金近期的疲软是暂时的，一旦美元的强势表现开始变化，那么黄金就将回升。由于市场已经将今年还有两次加息计入了影响，因此黄金下行将是有限的。而另一方面，市场有着大量风险事件，地缘政治的不确定性以及股市可能出现的修正都会为黄金带来避险需求的提振。


continuity5周，黄金的行情都很纠结，除了上周五单日28美金的跌幅，其余基本还是整理反复，没有太大的动作。2018年开年来到现在行情也走出了100美金的波幅，不过长时间的陷入这种小整理的时候总是令人很难受。就目前的价位来看，已经到了前期我们提到的底部。整个后市行情的思路，中长线来说1260下方黄金我不认为有空间，2015年底至今的震荡向上反弹的主节奏依然是当下行情的主流趋势。但是短期缺乏明显见底反转信号，所以预计下方空间虽然不大，但是会反复低位整理确认底部。所以操作上短线保持偏空思路，中长线考虑长线多单布局。那么对于中长线1260下方见到可以先尝试轻仓布局多单。

日内来看需要注意两个分水岭：上方1273Below1263。按照昨日形态，早间反抽，午后回撤概率大，但由于现在位置较为中性，1266-1267一线，上下空间不是很足。反抽了止损位刚好是阻力位。而破位了，也没有几美金下跌的空间。所以在今日操作上，要注意分水岭的攻守！另外，从现在的节奏来看，黄金弱势要明显大于上升，高点下移，并且压制在分水岭下方横盘，这都不是强势的表现。操作上日内1267Void1273，重点关注午后欧盘，欧盘反抽，空单调仓可出，下方目标1260-1261, strong support1252-1253一线。如果欧盘下跌破1263，那么反抽1265即可空，损1271Look1260Below.


Understanding of Shan Chenjin Trading-Reasons for losses in gold speculation


Personally, I believe that gold investment is a good investment product. Firstly, it has flexibility in trading, secondly, the stability of gold, and thirdly, the factors that affect gold are easier to analyze. Gold has been the main carrier of investment and wealth management since ancient times, but currently, domestic gold investors still suffer more losses and less profits. Why? Some people blame the platform, others blame the market, and say some personal opinions


1Lack of understanding of relevant knowledge. I heard that there is a great profit opportunity in this market, and if the broker deceives me again, I rashly enter the market without learning relevant knowledge, and even the trading rules and software usage are not clear. If you want to do a good job, you must first sharpen your tools. Even if you don't understand the resources in your hands, it's difficult to think of losing.


2I have learned relevant knowledge, especially technical analysis, and have a mixed understanding of various indicators and graphics. However, I am not proficient in them, and I am not familiar with them. When making orders, I have a confused mindset.


3Do not have their own trading strategy. The entry position is not suitable, which is not conducive to hanging a stop loss or not hanging a stop loss. A sharp rise and fall in the market is like chasing orders, and the result is always chasing the end of the market. There is no accurate positioning of profit margin before placing an order, and unexpected market conditions can be caught off guard.


4Blindly superstitious about brokers. The relationship between brokers and investors depends on trading volume, so some brokers encourage investors to place more orders, while some brokers have lower levels of proficiency.


5Attitude. Learning to hold coins and wait, being nervous when losing and also nervous when making profits, striving to find favorable factors for oneself through one's own analysis and the opinions of others, and so on.

学会合理分配和计划人生。不要盲目的预判自己的实力和路途的艰辛，任何时候，都要做好防备。明白合理规划的重要性。转到交易当中，很多人对自己的预判过于乐观，导致最后一败涂地。特别相信自己行情的分析，满仓操作，结果却无药可救。更有很多人，把这个市场，当作暴利市场，不断的加钱，借钱来做交易，而往往当自己认识到市场可怕的时候，回头却发现没有退路了。所以合理规划和认真自己，市场，都很重要。


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.