Shan Chenjin:6.21黄金遭遇滑铁卢，相对底部是否到来？

[paragraph]
Shan Chenjin:6.21gold遭遇滑铁卢，相对底部是否到来？


周三美元再创新高，黄金惨获四连阴。欧盟上日通过对美报复性关税，贸易紧张局势依旧笼罩市场，与此同时，美联储愈发鹰派，隔夜美联储主席鲍威尔表示，进一步收紧货币政策的理由“很强烈”，黄金臣服于强势美元和美联储，失守1270美元关口，不过贸易局势还是限制了跌幅。

Thursday(6month21day)亚市早盘，现货黄金继续交投在1270dollar/盎司关口下方，徘徊于上日触及的6Month low1267.40美元附近，当下市场投资者转向美元和美债避险，打压了黄金的需求。


昨日我们提到看空不追空，毕竟偏弱而非空头，所以亚欧盘震荡回落之后，晚盘我们还是坚持反弹1275-1276做空，果然抓获最高点，不过下跌来的要晚一些，凌晨之后震荡小幅回落，最终到了我们提到的1268Location.


黄金日线图显示，黄金周二反弹失败跌破1280关口，今天凌晨已下破1270支撑，短线小幅反弹不足以改变看跌前景。如短线进一步反弹，初步阻力将位于1276，如突破将上探1284as well as1290等阻力，而这种反弹或提供更好的逢高做空机会。下行方面，初步支撑位于1265，如跌破将下看1260等潜在支撑水平。今日我们依旧保持反弹做空思路，但日内短线可以轻仓做多，也就是继续考虑区间。


如果继续从考虑区间，那么前期低点1262-1263是一定要关注的位置。一方面，第一波下跌，1326-1282，幅度44美金。从1309下跌，如果也是44美金，那么应该在1265一线有支撑。这就符合了前期低点支撑。从小时线来说，极弱的形态虽然是压制回撤，但从连续性不够，所以在定义方面，只能是考虑震荡回落吧。


因此，在操作上，建议日内观望，4-8点还受压在1270附近可直接空，目标1262-1263一线，如果反弹给到1273-1275那直接空就行，同时，1262附近要有尝试多的计划，破1256损，这个多主要是看反抽的力度。弱势中的多，进去后一定要观察2个小时内的反抽力度，如果两小时不涨，就要跑了。昨日如果有1272多单就是如此，8Point to10点，价格还是在1274没动，本身弱势，一直不返回凑，错的概率就大了。所以，注意，这是弱势中做多的条件和判断方法。


如何才能稳定收益，稳中求胜？


一些基本因素盈利者必须要突破，每一步都是分水岭；从进入这个市场开始，就不要期待一夜暴富，良好的资金管理与交易习惯非常重要，操作仓位的固定依然是关键；盈利的仓位小，亏损的仓位大，最终结果一定是亏！而固定还不能盈利那么就是概率以及成功率的问题！


交易表明了枯燥的开始，这很正常，我们并不是为刺激而去交易，为刺激去交易只能是远离这个市场，接受枯燥无聊也是成功交易的一部分！决定自己的交易那么就严格去执行，趋势之中，顺势而为，区间则高卖低买多看少动，另外不要因为价格去臆测，认为价格跌了够多了就去买进，也不要因为价格大幅上升高了就去卖空，界定交易的信号，这也是执行的唯一原因！剩下的都涉及到情绪，不要让情绪干扰你的操作抉择！

There is no wine that cannot be drunk, only people who cannot be drunk. This is like pretending to sleep, you can never wake up, people with dreams and pressure can't sleep. After waking up, you only realized that you had made a mistake yesterday, and only after setting up the order did you realize the seriousness of the mistake. At the beginning of the story, there are few beautiful endings, and most end with sadness. In trading, persuading people to stop losses is not a good profession, but taking too many chances is definitely not a good thing. Many mistakes occur, just a small stroke of luck. The place where the trouble arises is a small fire, and a large fire burns oneself out, making it difficult to extinguish the fire. Every time someone asks about their position, it is basically an incurable stage. They take chances all the way, remain stubborn, watch shows all the way, and only seek solutions when there is no solution. At this time, they are basically resigned to fate, and it is almost impossible for one or two words to activate a good account. Cutting off evil thoughts lies at the source, and cutting off luck also lies at the source. At the beginning of each position, set your own maximum loss line, and there is no need to hold it afterwards.


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


σ-σ：330-5379-776V-Letter:scj366


The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.