Jincheng Beauty10.19Short term sharp decline in crude oil prices The US dollar index is under pressure and is declining

Yesterday in the United StatesWTIcrude oil11monthfuturesClosing down0.41USD, Reported49.94dollar/Barrel; Brent crude oil12Monthly futures closed lower0.43USD, Reported51.52dollar/桶。石油输出国组织（OPEC）和俄罗斯高企的原油产量令市场供应过剩担忧难以减轻，而伊朗的增产态度依然坚决，不过美元涨势暂时受阻以及OPEC成员国的积极言论限制了油价的下行空间。WTI原油期货盘中最低触及49.47dollar/桶，布伦特原油期货盘中最低触及51.17dollar/桶。今日凌晨，美联储副主席费希尔在纽约经济俱乐部发表演说。费希尔通常被视为是美联储成员中的鹰派，此前已经好几次暗示支持迅速加息。在他讲话期间，美元指数由涨转跌。

Short term sharp decline in crude oil prices

油价周一周二急跌，大量卖单重挫WTIfall drastically50美元关口。伊朗头一次提出500万桶的目标吓坏了多头，并扬言必须收复油市占有率，使限产协议受到进一步质疑。

伊朗石油部长赞加内周一称，新签订的合约将帮助伊朗达到原油产量50010000 barrels/日的目标，并计划在四年内实现原油日均产量达到428万桶，以及凝析油产量达到100万桶，并为本国油田、天然气以及石油化学制品产业寻求总达2000亿美元投资，以提升产量和石油销售。这一消息使得阿尔及尔达成的限产协议受到进一步质疑。

如今市场受到OPECmember state11month30日将于维也纳会议上采取措施提振油价这一预期所支撑。金城分析认为

11month30日的会议之前，布伦特原油将难以在50dollar/桶下方遭到抛售

。

但是我认为虽然预计OPEC将会继续对油市进行口头干预，从而为油价带来一定支撑，但供应过剩问题依然严重，原油多头的投资热情恐难以为继。OPEC原油产量在9The month reached a record breaking level336010000 barrels/日，而部分成员国已释放进一步增产的信号。

美元指数高位回落

昨日，受美国制造业数据疲软影响，美国的隔夜利率已经有所下滑；美元指数也有所回落。美元指数已经创下逾一年来的最佳双周表现，自10Since the beginning of the month, it has risen2.5%After a continuous surge, there is some downward pressure on the US dollar.

周一周二数据显示，美国9Monthly industrial output rate0.1%, expected0.1%, Previous value-0.5%。故我认为，工业产出略有回升原因因制造业产出被家电产量下滑抵消，表明第三季度经济增速将温和加速；第三季度工业产出年率增长1.8%，是去年第三季度以来首个季度录得正值；今年前工业部门一直受美元升值影响，但随着升值降温和油价稳定，这种消极影响或将结束。

Fischer pointed out in his speech that the Federal Reserve is very close to the dual goals of inflation and employment, and low interest rates make the Fed's policies more difficult. corePCEinflation rate1.7%, approaching2%This inflation target, in the post crisis period, has helped with the recovery through Federal Reserve policies. There are points where interest rate cuts can have undue impact, operating at zero interest rates may undermine confidence, and exceeding the goal of full employment may lead to inflation. Currently, both the US and global economies lack growth.

若利率继续陷在当前低水平，美国经济可能面临更长期更严重衰退，低增长可能令央行在有效抗击衰退方面无能为力。

The above views are the personal opinions of Yang, the Chief Analyst of Hunan Nonferrous Metals, Jincheng Beauty, and are for reference only; For more detailed analysis, please contact Jincheng Jiaren for online guidance, which provides in-depth research on investment products such as spot crude oil, copper, natural gas, and silver. Teacher Jincheng's WeChat:qcjr86
Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market

我以为小鸟飞不过沧海，是以为小鸟没有飞过沧海的勇气，十年以后我才发现，不是小鸟飞不过去，而是沧海的那一头，早已没有了等待……