ATFXChina Q1GDPYear-on-year growth4.5%The total amount of social consumption is approximately11.5Trillion yuan

The China Bureau of Statistics released a report on the operation of the national economy for the first quarter, with two major data worth noting:GDPYear-on-year growth rate and total retail sales of consumer goods. Statistics show that in the first quarterGDPtotal28.5Trillion yuan, year-on-year growth4.5%The growth rate of the primary and secondary industries is lower than the average, while the growth rate of the tertiary industry is5.4%, becoming the first quarterGDPThe main driving force for growth rate.


Total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter114922100 million yuan, year-on-year growth5.8%, decreased in the fourth quarter of last year2.7%；3月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长10.6%Compared to1-2月份加快7.1个百分点。从提振内需的角度看，社销总额的复苏，其重要性甚至大于GDP增速数据。决策层一直在强调，依靠出口拉动的GDP增长是被动的，如果全球经济出现衰退，出口产业将迅速疲软。消费是内生动力，14亿人口的潜在消费力量是庞大的。只要中国的社销总额能够保持稳定、快速的增长，无论全球经济做何种表现，中国经济都将一枝独秀。


上述数据发布之后，USDCNH分钟级别出现剧烈波动。10:00to10:05，USDCNH先跌后张，最低触及6.8650，最高达到6.8787，振幅137标准点。数据发布5分钟后，USDCNH以阳线收盘。表明foreign exchange市场把一季度国民经济运行数据看作一项利空因素，部分原因在于GDP增速没有达到预期。今年两会期间，国务院总理李强将2023年中国GDP增速目标设定为5%。显然一季度4.5%的增速低于5%The goal of.


由于房地产业是国民经济的支柱产业。即便GDP增速和社会消费品零售总额表现良好，如果房地产业出现衰退迹象的话，仍将难以有效提振市场信心。国民经济运行报告中提到：房地产开发投资下降5.8%，全国商品房销售面积29946万平方米，下降1.8%。可以看出，房地产市场的供应端和需求端都在下降。虽然北京、上海等一线城市的房地产市场出现复苏迹象，但全国的房地产市场的形势不容乐观。


中国十年期国债收益率在今天出现微幅下降，代表债券市场对未来经济复苏的前景表示悲观。债券收益率越低，代表未来中央银行降息的可能性越高。降息是宽松货币政策，离岸人民币的币值将随之下降。其实，人民银行一直处于宽松货币状态，原因之一就是中国房地产市场表现疲软，以及中国近些年的GDP增速不及预期。需要提醒的是，由于美元居于霸权货币地位，所以USDCNH受到中国货币政策的影响较小，而主要受到美联储货币政策的主导。

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2023-04-18