Dingsheng Jinshi:9.5今日黄金走势分析，触底反弹，多头恐要展...

——9.5goldAnalysis——


　　黄金上周持续阴跌回落，周五行情有所回弹，非农数据公布后，行情一度冲高测压至1718The daily chart closed with one yang, over5A continuous negative trend. On a weekly level, there was a bearish shadow in the gold closing area last week. After three consecutive weeks of decline, gold has released a lot of bearish momentum, and the trading situation has fallen to near the previous low. In theory, there will also be some technical support. However, due to the strong expectation of the US dollar interest rate hike in the market, the road for gold to rebound in the future is still very difficult, and it is not ruled out that the possibility of further expanding the falling space due to the impact of interest rate hike expectations.


　　日线结构上，上周五阳线的给出，缓和了短期黄金的下跌趋势，但从近期下跌趋势来看，跌势既已形成，那么回弹空间可能就不会很大，目前属于第二波下跌后的回弹，类似于8month23Solstice25日的回弹状态，周内上方着重关注前一波段下跌低点1728-30压力测试，如果本周回弹不能突破此压，则未来黄金很有可能再来一波大幅的延续性的下跌趋势，届时跌破1700也是很有可能的。


　　结合小时图走势，本周初黄金大概率是要以震荡回弹来消化上周走势的，但回弹空间会受限，动能也有限，且依然要关注美指走势对黄金的打压。周初下方可关注1710-07、1703-00两个短线支撑带，暂时预期跌回1700下方的可能性不大，但这并不意味着就可以强势回弹，上方先关注1718-20压力带，冲破则再看1727-30短线的强压力带测试。


　　操作上，周初激进可尝试进行阶段性的短多，上方目标不要期待过大，重点关注1727-30Belt testing.


　　①日内激进可在回踩1708/07附近轻仓多，至1704/03附近轻仓补多，统一带止损1700, look at the goal1715-17减仓改保本止损，剩余持单站上1720上方则留有，有待测压1727-30再做减离。


　　②日内暂时不考虑短空，上方1717/18可能还会有争夺，但此位并非主压，故上方有待测压1727-30区域再做短空考虑，具体策略有待实盘调整。


　　——9.5crude oilAnalysis——


　　国际原油价格上周重新下跌，因全球增长疲软担忧和全球央行鹰派立场对大宗商品走势构成抑制。G7财长即将讨论对俄石油出口价格设置上限。市场预计，石油输出国组织(OPEC)将在必要时减产以支撑价格。


　　本周原油也是一直处于下行当中，周线以中阴线收尾。在长达两周的反弹下，多头终显疲态，在前底附近重要压力区空头开始了下行反攻，仅仅3天便吞没了前期多头所有的成果，二次探底的走势逼近了前期底部。周二大阴线构成了顶分型结构，预示着空头正是来袭，随后愈演愈烈，在周四油价更加暴力下行3%。


　　人们对高通胀和加息削弱燃料需求的担忧加剧。数据方面美国EIA的报告显示，美国原油库存已连续第三周下降，而美国最大的的库存出现两个多月来的首次下降。重启伊朗核协议的谈判可能会开启更多的原油出口，而俄罗斯的石油产量一直维持在高于此前预期的水平。世界的石油需求停滞不前，而供应却在逐步增加，这也是导致油价暴跌的原因。


　　操作方面：上方短期重点关注91.5-92.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below86.5-86，以高位博空，低位进多，具体操作以盘中实时给出为准。


Serve as an analyst and commentator for well-known financial channels such as "Golden Net" and "Globalforeign exchange》Professional contributors to several well-known financial forums such as "Huitong Net" and "Zhongjin Net", specializing in short, medium, and long term operations of gold, crude oil, and silver. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market. Suggestions are for reference only; This article is original by Dingsheng Jinshi, who carefully writes every analysis and conveys valuable investment concepts. If there is any similarity, it is purely plagiarism. Readers should be discerning and respect originality!