Guide Metallographer:8.17Today's gold trend analysis, gold1780下方萎靡不振

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　尽管上周金价上涨，但在新的一周交易日开盘时，金价已下跌1%。凯投宏观(Capital Economics)预计，随着美元走强和美债收益率上升，金价将进一步下跌。


　　该机构的研究团队在最新的大宗商品报告中表示，预计今年金价将收于每盎司1650美元，这比目前的价格低了近150USD.


　　尽管上周通胀放缓导致金价上涨1.5%，但该机构还是做出了上述预测。上周公布的CPI数据低于预期，年通胀率为8.5%, and6月份的数据为9.1%。尽管金价迅速反弹，但许多分析师对金价未能利用近期的上涨感到失望。


　　凯投宏观大宗商品团队在上周五的一份报告中称，通胀消息最初对黄金市场有利，因为它阻止了市场对美联储在9月议息会议上再次采取激进举措的预期。


　　他们写道：“我们的观点是，总体通胀已见顶，美联储将在下次会议上加息50个基点，而不是75Basis points


　　凯投宏观预测金价将达到每盎司1650美元，其前提是美国10年期国债收益率将在今年年底前上升。


　　报告说：“由于通胀数据低于预期，投资者降低了对美国加息的预期，多数大宗商品得到提振。尽管如此，我们仍然预计，到今年年底美国10年期国债收益率会进一步小幅上升，这可能会在未来几个月对大宗商品价格，尤其是金价，造成新的下行压力。我们的年底预测是每盎司1650US dollars. "


　　凯投宏观自3月以来一直预测金价将下跌，理由是美元前景强劲，抵消了乌克兰战争引发的更多避险资金流入带来的好处。


　　该机构表示：“我们最近修正了对美国市场的预测，我们现在预计，到2022end of the year10年期美国国债收益率将升至3%about(之前是4%), to2023年底将升至2.75%左右，这意味着实际收益率预期将上升……与此同时，我们继续预测，美元将从现在开始将小幅升值，因为我们认为美国经济将比欧洲和亚洲的其他发达经济体表现得更好，利差将继续有利于美元。”


Technical analysis of gold:


How does gold fluctuate? It hasn't exceeded the limit in the past week1798reach1805Short selling in the region. Yesterday, gold fluctuated and fell all the way since the opening, indicating that the bearish trend is still evident, which means1800Limited upside space, ready to decline at any time30reach40The US dollar range is very easy. Last week, we attacked the station in the middle of the night1800Regional, but there was no correlation with Monday's rise, indicating a clear bullish trend, with consecutive breakdowns yesterday5Rihe10The daily moving average indicates a decline in upward momentum and downward pressure1788reach1795Area.


Looking back at the market last week, although gold surged, most of the time it was1798reach1805区域压力下，冲高回落走势，指南金师始终坚持高空昨日又是近30The trend of the US dollar adjustment is familiar to the market. Recently, there has been a surge in prices, with raids in the early hours of the night. The next day, warm water is turned on to cook frogs, and the surge has dropped,1787Fall to1753Area, followed by1794Fall to1765Area, rear1808Fall to1783Regions, all close30The US dollar fell and adjusted, so yesterday1802reach1772Also30USD range. Only a break1765Only then can we open up the downward space.


Yesterday was international againETFThe main force is reducing its holdings, looking at what international giants are doing in the gold rebound7After the monthly interest rate hike rebounded, the main force has been to reduce holdings every time it rebounded, only once7month29Daily breakthrough1750Increase your holdings a bit, but then continue to decrease your holdings, which indicates that2070Falling continuously for six months to1680near400After the US dollar range, it is not optimistic about the future upward trend to push up and reduce holdings. It is expected that there will be lower positions to buy at the bottom and increase holdings in the future. We must take a warning from this high selling and low buying, and a slight amplification of the bearish situation can lead to a flash crash.


Currently, gold does not have a bullish market foundation, and both daily and monthly trading lines are bearish control. Simple moving averages are temporarily staggered without long positions, and even key pressure positions have not broken. Why is a bull market? Moreover, even if the bull market rises and rebounds in the first wave120The US dollar range also requires a second round of retesting to solidify the bottom support, so that we can go further in the later stage and only reach those who are destined. That's all I've said to tell you at this moment1800Don't chase too much on the market, there's not much room for growth, and there's always room for decline80reach100US dollars, every time we change the price, we always add a space to drive in. The flight attendant drives until nothing grows. If you still hesitate, we can only haha! Last week, I gave you expectations.


The time-sharing chart has actually deviated from the short selling signal,1790reach1798Continuous deviation in the region indicates that the1685I have basically completed the five steps of doing long signals all the way, and yesterday, I went down to the ground and broke the level for a day. I sorted it out horizontally for a week1784Region, so the top to bottom transition here is still a short space region, with concentrated pressure during time sharing1788reach1795Region, which means that as long as1795The consolidation of the lower horizontal market is all due to bearish control of the rebound market, with a target of two dips and one dip1765reach1750Since the market is adjusting under critical pressure, it's good for you to make a rebound and short the trend.


Gold rebound1784-88One line empty, loss release1793, Objective1770-65。


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