Chen Zeqiang:7.15黄金原油涨跌行情分析，黄金原油走势交易操...

Acquaintance is fate, acquaintance is fate. I firmly believe that it is fate to meet for a thousand miles, and it is fate to wipe our shoulders without a share. The journey of investment is long, and temporary gains and losses are only the tip of the iceberg along the way. You should know that a wise man who has a thousand worries will have a loss, and a fool who has a thousand worries will have a gain. No matter how emotional you are, time will not stagnate due to you. Pick up the boredom in your heart and stand up again to pack up and move forward. At this moment, being able to read here indicates that you and I are destined. As long as you are willing to share your gains and losses with me, I will be happy to help you overcome difficulties and become your confidant on the investment journey. The stagnation of your heart makes you sit at the bottom of the well and sigh in the sky. Am I fortunate enough to accompany you as I pass by.

　　goldLatest market analysis:

Analysis of Gold News: Friday7month15日亚盘，现货黄金低位徘徊，目前交投于1712.85dollar/Nearby ounces, overnight as the US dollar continued to strengthen, it hit a new high20The annual high point caused gold prices to drop to1700Below the checkpoint, approaching11Month low to1697.53dollar/Around ounces, however, the increase in initial jobless claims in the United States exceeded expectations, with two of the Fed's most hawkish officials claiming to only support7Monthly interest rate hike75Basis points, market sentiment towards the Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate hike100The expected cooling of basis points has led to a rebound in gold prices1710关口附近。“美元走强正推动金价下跌，在美国消费者通胀数据公布后，交易员将升息预期从75个基点提高到100个基点，这打击了黄金，“除非通胀回落至足以停止加息，或者其他央行开始像美联储那样激进，这可能打击美元，否则黄金将不太可能看到任何正常的上升空间。

　　需要提醒的是，欧洲经济增速放缓甚至是经济衰退的风险，近期也给美元提供了强劲的上涨动能，美元的避险需求甚至盖过了黄金的避险需求，短线给金价的支撑相对有限，更多的支撑料将体现在中长线走势上。在美联储可能采取更为激进的紧缩政策之际，美元恢复了持续上涨的势头，并升至20年来的新高至109上方。美元走强被认为是对以美元计价的黄金施加沉重下行压力的关键因素。美国劳工部报告称，6月份美国消费者物价指数(CPI)加速上升至9.1%, for1981year11月以来的最高水平。该数据为美联储再次大幅加息提供了理由，并继续支撑美元。不过，因为金价近期下跌太多，短线也存在一些获利了结需求，随着美联储7Monthly interest rate increase100点的预期降温，美国消费者信心预计再创新低，全球经济衰退预期笼罩，仍需留意中长线逢低买盘给金价的支撑情况。本交易日金价震荡下探后温和反弹的可能性相对较大。

　　黄金技术面分析：昨日黄金受市场对美联储加息100基点预期影响，行情再度转跌回落，晚间美指大幅拉升一波也导致黄金下跌至1697frontline,1700虽有刺破，但随后行情止跌回弹，后半夜美联储官员言论打压市场对加息100基点的押注概率，黄金得以保住回弹结果，收于1710附近，但日线最终还是收得一阴线。日线结构上，目前黄金是严重的超跌状态，且存在极严重的底部背离形态，导致这种偏激下跌结果的主因在于市场基本面对美元的偏激看涨的影响，所以未来如果市场情绪发生微妙变化，美指出现技术回修，那么黄金是很有可能报复性回弹的，但目前上方需要关注5Daily line1720争夺，10Daily line1740压力测试，主要压力还是得看前期回弹小高点1750附近，能够站稳其上，黄金短线下跌趋势或可能得到解除，才能有望进一步回弹测压1770-80一带，但中线结构趋势依旧还是偏空的。

　　黄金结合小时图结构，隔夜黄金下跌刺破1700后并未停留，技术上再度超卖致随后行情回弹，目前来看短线行情有极大的延伸回弹可能，日内上方先关注1720附近争夺，这也作为短线回弹的首个目标位，能够站稳其上，则短线行情暂时视作止跌有效，届时上方可再关注1730、1740争夺，预期今日在技术上是有望再测压1740附近的，但能否按预期出现回弹，还是得看美指日内能否有技术性回修，黄金目前很被动，故操作上务必还是要高度谨慎的。操作上，日内以尝试进行搏技术反弹为主，下方确认1700附近支撑有效性，上方先关注1720短压争夺，预期晚间行情可能波动较大，届时再根据实际情况进一步调整。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上陈泽强建议反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方短期关注1718-1723Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1695-1690Frontline support.

　　【crude oil】

　　美油昨日先横盘震荡消化，欧美盘时段行情再度出现一波较大幅度下跌，跌破93支撑，跌至90.4一线，随后行情快速回弹拉升，最终又回到96上方，日线收得一极长下影线的十字星线。从日线结构上来看，目前美油也是严重超卖，严重的底部背离形态，技术上有超跌反弹需求，但近期市场对美油情绪极度不稳定，所以还是要多加防范。技术上，结合小时图走势，短线美油或有进一步回升反弹需要，日内下方关注93附近支撑，如果市场情绪转多，则预期不太可能再回撤此位，但也要做好市场情绪再度变卦的风险。日内上方则关注98附近压力，未来主压还是看100Integer level.

　　操作上，日内美油可进行择低短多操作，但目前情绪异动风险未完全解除，所以务必要轻仓对待，高度谨慎。

　　①日内激进可在回踩95.5-3附近先轻仓短多，冒险亦可在96附近先尝试，统一带止损95Below, look at the target97Reduce positions nearby, change to break even and stop loss, and hold the remaining orders for further review5Daily line97.7-98一带再做减仓，可适度保留部分持单看后期回弹10Daily line100整数位附近的可能。

　　②如果日内行情回撤回95以下，则下方有待回撤94、93.5-2再尝试短多，带止损93Below, let's take a look at the target first95-96之间减仓，剩余持单根据情况再做进一步调整。

This article is exclusively authored by analyst Chen Zeqiang. I have always been passionate about the gold and crude oil markets. Due to the delay in online push, the above content is my personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, it is for reference only and at my own risk. Please indicate the source when reprinting