Guide Metallographer:7.4Today's gold trend analysis,1800多空分界线，静待非农

　　gold周一行情分析：


Analysis of Gold News: Friday(7month1day)欧洲时段，现货黄金震荡下跌，目前跌破1800关口下方。欧美央行激进的加息策略持续升温，虽然隔夜美国通胀数据显示，通胀有下降的迹象。但短期内美国通胀仍然持续高位，同时美国总统拜登迫切需要压低通胀。这些因素，将会导致美联储主席鲍威尔在面对通胀的时候，更为强硬。强硬的政策，未来一两个月会继续给金价带来沉重压力。技术面看空信号持续增强，金价有加速下滑的态势。日内交易，投资者需要密切关注美国的ISMmanufacturingPMI数据，该数据将会给晚间美国市场的情绪定下基调。同时投资者还要关注，俄乌局势等相关消息。


　　黄金技术面分析：黄金周线连阴大跌，再跌就可以看前期低点1782，这也是目前可以看到的下跌低点，日线4连阴，虽然暂时没有拉开布林，但已经有开口的表现，如果周五黄金再跌一波，那么日线布林就开口，黄金将在7月第一周形成极弱单边，空头可见1782低点，因此，暂时这个周期黄金保持空头优势。目前从结构上来看，黄金高点逐次降低，从1857一线，再到1847附近，其次是反弹至1840一线，至本周的1833一线，昨日反弹的高点1824均已以反弹无果之后继续回落延续下探，所以目前的行情走势较为明显，偏弱下行，震荡过程伴随反复，但是依旧有回撤空间。黄金整体走势还是偏弱，本周连续下跌一周，日线级别走出四连阴的局面，每天在美盘初的反弹也是昙花一现，价格目前触及1800关口附近，但整体的弱势使得1800破位可能就是随时的事情。日线级别，布林带持续开口向下，价格沿着中轨附近震荡下行，价格不断走出新的低点，日内大概率小幅反弹之后再度走低。综合来看，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹高空为主，回踩低多为辅，上方短期关注1815-1810Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1885-1780Frontline support.


　　crude oilMarket analysis:


Analysis of crude oil message surface:7month1日亚洲时段，美油交投于106.39dollar/桶；油价周四下跌超3%，受益于美股下跌，美国经济衰退的担忧加剧。俄罗斯副总理亚历山大·诺瓦克在接受Rossiya 24电视频道采访时表示，石油产量已经恢复，本月几乎恢复到2月水平。俄罗斯2月仅原油的日产量为102010000 barrels/Day,3-4月降至约90010000 barrels/Day,6月的平均日产量为99010000 barrels/日；俄罗斯确信夏季可以恢复产量，达到OPEC+规定的配额。OPEC+周四表示，在8月将坚持之前商定好的增产计划，但并未讨论9月往后的政策，投资者担心该联盟缺乏进一步增产的能力。此前，OPEC+决定在7Month and8月增产64.810000 barrels/日，之前的增产幅度为43.210000 barrels/日。尽管OPEC+批准了8月份的石油增产计划，但市场对未来的产量感到疑惑，短期或限制油价跌幅。


　　原油技术面分析：周五原油开盘回落109.2Nearby, explore on the rebound110.5Nearby obstructed, falling down to explore105Nearby, closing105.9Nearby, the daily line fluctuated and fell before rebounding; Although the rebound of oil prices has been hindered near the middle track of the Bollinger Line, currentlyKDJThe golden cross signal is still present,5Daily moving average10Daily moving average, falling below6month17Daily low point108.30Previously, the short term still leaned towards the bulls, with initial resistance at55Daily moving average110.25Nearby, Tuesday's high point resistance112.22Nearby,21Daily moving average resistance114.33If the resistance can be overcome nearby, it will increase the bullish signal in the future. Given thatMACDThe dead cross signal is still present, and Wednesday's bearish candlestick has swallowed up Tuesday's bullish candlestick. We need to be cautious of the risk of turning downwards and provide initial support108.30Nearby,100The daily moving average is supported by106.42If the support is lost nearby, increase the short-term bearish signal. The Bollinger Line offline track support is currently in use103.74附近。综合来看，原油今日操作思路上指南金师建议以回踩做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期关注109.5-110.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below105.0-104.5Frontline support.


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