张鑫溢：7.17黄金还会跌吗？国际黄金行情趋势分析及原油

　　A股暴跌全球市场风起云涌，恐怖数据来袭能否带动gold多头？
　　
Thursday（7month16Day),A股暴跌后，全球股市随之下挫，金融市场上方阴云密布，迅速抹去昨日新冠疫苗试验结果积极带来的阳光。即便被视为避险天堂的黄金也没能幸免，当避险情绪上升，美元随之上涨，打压以美元计价的黄金。金价目前正徘徊于1805美元水平附近的日内低位。
　　
Thursday Beijing Time19:45，欧洲央行将公布利率决议；北京时间周四20:30，欧洲央行行长拉加德将召开新闻发布会。拉加德此前已经暗示，在采取大规模紧急刺激措施使市场动荡平息之后，央行将在会议上保持政策不变。市场普遍预期该央行将维持利率政策不变，但相关声明措辞以及新闻发布会可能引发市场行情。
　　
　　另外，美国6月零售销售数据定于北京时间周四20:30出炉。在5月大幅反弹之后，美国6月零售销售增幅料大幅回落，表明美国经济仍有很长一段漫长且颠簸的复苏之路要走。美国零售销售数据素有“恐怖数据”之称，因其通常对金融市场有较大的影响，因此很可能对美元、黄金等资产走势产生影响。
　　
　　————黄金走势分析
　　
　　黄金技术面来看，从黄金日线来看，昨日的黄金日线以长长的下影阳柱结束，金价再次站在MA5/10日线上方，这意味着黄金已经恢复了强劲的市场，并可能打击前一交易日。短期内较高点1818，从指标上看，MACD快慢线金叉，KDJ也转为看涨，短期移动均线仍维持金叉的开盘，本轮上涨均基于10日均线，因此仍可能低于10Daily moving average1795年支撑。更多，顶部关注先前的高点1818，然后是上轨延伸时的1824阻力。黄金四小时来看，低点在隔夜反弹，并在高位收盘。目前运行在中轨和各种短期均线上方，表明多头强劲，指标上，短期均线MA5穿越MA10并重新形成金叉，MACDandKDJ它也转为看涨，指示有进一步的反弹趋势，但是布林带三个轨线持平，RSI指标在超买区域内扭转，并且在价格小幅上涨后触及上方轨线，目前正有所回落。不过上涨通道1785给予支撑，同时下轨也在该位置。综合来看短线操作思路上张鑫溢个人建议以反弹高空为主；回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1815-1818Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1785-1780Frontline support.
　　
　　————crude oilTrend analysis
　　
　　原油从日线上来看，隔日原油依托中轨MA10日均线上涨，收得带上下影线的中阳，昨日美盘两次触及40附近未下破，隔夜强势拉升至41上方，原油整体呈现中上轨慢涨状态，但迟迟并未突破，所以日内还是看一个震荡走势。原油四小时来看，隔日原油呈震荡上行趋势，中途试探中轨支撑后快速回升，并刷新近期高点，当前布林带处于开口期，MA均线走出金叉形态，KDJThe three lines of random indicators are downward,MACD指标红色动能柱开始缩量，快慢线金叉向上，原油目前技术面面临超买，短期内有回撤需求，但涨势依在。综合来看短线操作短线思路上张鑫溢个人建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注41.6-42.1Frontline resistance, short-term focus below40.0-39.5Frontline support.
　　
　　不同的行情有不同的应对方法，下面张鑫溢就来分享下几种行情的操作时应该的注意事项。
　　
　　1The volatile trading method: Most of the time the market is in a volatile pattern, and the most basic way to stabilize profits is to sell high and buy low between the boxes during market fluctuations. The indicators used areBOLLBox theory. The prerequisite for success is to find the right resistance support based on various technical indicators and graphics. The principle of using the oscillating trading method is that short-term trading should not be greedy! 　　 　　2Breaking through the trend and making a single: After a long period of consolidation, the market will ultimately choose the direction, and chasing after the direction change is the fastest way to stabilize profits. It is required to have good ability to make changes, a stable mindset, and avoid greed and fear.
　　
　　3Unilateral trend trading method: After the market breaks through the market trend, the market will choose a direction. After the formation of a unilateral market trend, trading with the trend is an eternal truth. In every pullback or rebound, it is an opportunity to place orders and the best guarantee for stable profits! The technical indicators used are:KLine, moving average,BOLL,Trendline! Proficient in mastering the above indicators is required.
　　
　　4The resistance support method for placing orders: When the market encounters important resistance support, it is often hindered or supported. Placing orders when hindered or supported is a commonly used method and the most common way to stabilize profits. The indicators used are trend lines, moving averages, Bollinger bands, and parabolic indicators, which require a very accurate judgment of resistance support.
　　
　　5Callback and rebound trading method: After a significant rise or fall in the market, there will be a brief rebound or rebound trend. Seizing such opportunities is the easiest and simplest way for us to stabilize profits. The main application indicators areKThe line shape requires a very good sense of direction and the ability to accurately determine the high or low points of the stage.
　　
　　6Time period trading method: In general, there is less fluctuation in the morning and afternoon trading, and the market is easy to grasp. It is suitable for investors with mild personalities to operate. The disadvantage is that the time for placing orders to make profits is prolonged, and sufficient patience is necessary. The late and early morning trading fluctuates sharply, allowing for quick profits and multiple trading opportunities. Suitable for radical investors to operate, the disadvantage is that the market is difficult to grasp, prone to errors, and requires high technical level and judgment ability! (Special note: The market has different characteristics in different periods. Sometimes the fluctuation amplitude is very large, sometimes the fluctuation amplitude is not large, sometimes it is unilateral, sometimes it is oscillatory, and sometimes it is composite.);But one thing is certain: once a market of a certain nature appears, there will be inertia - it will continue for a period of time, even for a long time; Therefore, it is necessary to choose the appropriate method based on the actual situation, rather than being static.
　　
　　没有做不到的事，只有不想做的人。如果你对你目前的亏损现状无动于衷那么只能证明你在逃避，你不甘心于亏损，若真的不甘心请你学会改变，若你不愿改变，则说明你伤的还不够深，一位愿与你同舟共济的引路人和朋友。
　　
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　　因为坚持，所以信任；因为专业，所以务实。
　　
　　作者：张鑫溢