GKFXPrime捷凯金融：原油大幅反弹，你抄底成功了嘛

在过去一个月时间，布伦特crude oilandWTI原油价格双双开启上涨趋势。这背后的原因归根结底目前，市场对供需平衡的预期都非常乐观。各产油国供应量每天开始逐渐消减数百万桶，使得市场上原油的供应量不再像3、4月份时期那样泛滥成灾。

油田钻井平台数量开始相继停产


OPEC成员国沙特及伊拉克相继减少6月份石油供应外。今日早盘时段，沙特阿拉伯和科威特更是宣布将从6month1日起停止其共同开发的哈夫吉油田的生产一个月。
根据美国能源机构的最新数据统计，随着原油价格下跌，活跃的钻井平台数量开始急剧减少：自3month17日以来，钻井平台数量下降了56%to433个。减少的主要是以石油为重点的地质区块，但以天然气为重点的区块也明显减少。

（油田钻井平台数量曲线图）

从历史上看，石油钻井平台数量的变化是随着油价的变化而变化的，其滞后时间约为4个月。然而，目前钻机数量的下降速度远超过去。WTI现货原油价格从2020year3月开始，每桶46.78美元，到3月底的每桶20.51USD.

（WTI原油价格与钻机数量对比图）

全球原油需求开始回升


根据美国能源机构的研究预测显示，全球对于原油的需求在今年第二季度开始飙升，到三季度后消耗量将会超过原油供给量。

（蓝色全球原油产量曲线vs棕色全球原油消耗量曲线图）

此外，由于中国复工复产较早，对于原油的需求量也开始上涨。在过去两三周时间，中国多个城市的交通量激增。根据数据统计，国内二线城市的交通拥堵高峰比一年前同期水平还要高出10reach50Percentage points.


市场乐观看待原油供需，油价反弹


当市场上的原油供给不断缩减后，市场的多头情绪开始回暖。从当前减产行动来看，油价的上涨确实符合各方需求。
WTI原油价格从4月底的不足10美金上涨到当前的34美金附近。当前价格上方就是前期的跳空缺口附近，技术角度来看，油价会在该缺口附近暂缓调整一段时间才会再继续选择方向。

（现货原油日线图）

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