Wang Mingxin9.8黄金原油走势分析多空疯狂下周预测后市操作指导布局解套

U.S.A8月非农数据闪亮登台，新增就业和薪资增长表现不一。而在这之前，收益率开始倒挂预示经济衰退，美联储正如临大敌开始新的降息周期。下面让我们来解读这些好坏不一的经济信号以把脉美国经济增长状况。



8 Monthly non agricultural increase13 万，失业率保持在纪录低位附近，根据美国劳工部公布的数据，美国8月份非农就业增长13.0万，低於预期值16.0万，前值修正为15.9万。至此非农就业增长三个月均值为15.6万。同时公布的8The monthly unemployment rate is3.7%，与有史以来的最低纪录3.5%相差无几。此外数据还显示，8月薪资月率为0.4%At an annual rate of3.2%，均优於预期。



尽管新增就业人数不及预期，处於纪录低位附近的失业率以及相对较强的薪资增速，反映了劳动力市场仍紧俏，也是美国经济健康最直接可靠的反映。根据历史经验，就业增长疲软与经济放缓相伴，而在经济衰退出现前会出现零星的负增长。所以单从就业方面考量，还没有看到美国经济增长亮红灯的迹象。



美国二季度经济增长保持中速，三季度开局良好，事实上，衡量经济最直观的指标GDP指示美国经济正保持中速前行。根据最新数据美国第二季度GDP增长率为2.0%，以金融危机後2.36%的季度增长率均值来看，属於中等偏下的水平。至此美国经济实现连续21个季度保持扩张。至於接下来的第三季度表现，7月份经济数据指示开局较好∶消费支出、耐用品订单环比增长明显，政府支出显著加快，就业保持强劲，通胀维持稳定。不过一些调查数据却显示前景堪忧，尤其是8monthPMI数据滑向荣枯线以下。（wmx67188）




goldTrend analysis:



周五，黄金黄金开盘走低1502一线，随后企稳回升，买盘进场激发黄金多头动力，黄金震荡上行，随后晚间非农公布利空美元，利好黄金，黄金一举走高1527一线，随后受阻回落，晚间鲍威尔讲话由于发表对美经济良好的言论，从而导致黄金有所回落，最终收盘于1506一线。对于当下而言，黄金多空无疑依旧处于胶着当中。下方的话，重点就是千五大关的得失，对于下周而言，如果黄金再度大跌破位1500大关，那么空头无疑会进一步败退走低考验1490-1488支撑，进一步可能会再度回落1480关口。但是，由于全球市场的风险性以及9月利率纪要的不断接近，市场押注黄金多头的情绪还有所升温，对此，黄金亦可能因为再度走高，但是上方的话，各位还需关注1533多空分水岭以及1550-1556High point.



gold4小时来看，金价持续下探1501不破企稳反弹目前黄金已经站稳布林带下轨有形成双底，1小时来看布林带开口向上，价格突破布林带下轨，MACD指标也形成金叉，布林带开口。下方关注1500关口一线；下破那么将打开下方空间；综合来看，下周一短线操作思路上王铭鑫个人建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注1515-1517Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1500-1502First line support, break through and continue to look down1493-1495Frontline support.



Suggestions for Gold Operations:



1Gold rebounded to1515-1517Short on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1506-1508frontline;



2、黄金回调下方不破1500-1502Long on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1510-1512frontline;



3Gold callback to1493-1495Long on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1502-1504frontline;



internationalcrude oilMarket trend analysis



昨天原油走势欧盘前与黄金一样，都是连续的震荡下行，欧盘左右与黄金直接分道扬镳，连续的震荡上行，把前期高点直接打破，原油日线上看，K线运行与布林通上轨下方，原油K线收阳线。布林通开口扩张，MA5Daily moving average andMA10均线粘合。技术指标上看，目前VOL成交量红柱放量，昨日成交量上升，MACD零轴缓慢上升，KDJGolden fork,RSI中轴走平。原油处于三角形形态，无论向上还是向下突破趋势线，走势都将强势明显。



从技术面来看，日线图布林线轨道收口，上一交易日汇价受到布林线上轨和100日均线双重阻力位的压制，增加了后市变数，目前MACDandKDJ依然轻微金叉，若顶破100Daily moving average57.76附近阻力，则增加后市看涨信号，进一步阻力在7month31Daily high point58.82Nearby,7month16The daily high is at60.06Nearby, strong resistance7month11Daily high point60.94附近。下方留意布林线中轨55.03附近支撑王铭鑫认为若失守该支撑，则增加短线看空信号，油价可能会重新试探布林线下轨52.74附近支撑。短线4hourMACD初步结成死叉，KDJ死叉，后市走势变数较大；下方初步支撑在布林线中轨55.31附近；若能守住该位置，则后市偏向震荡上攻，阻力参考日线级别分析。若跌破该支撑，则增加短线看空信号，进一步支撑分别54.46和布林线下轨53.28附近。综合来看，短线操作思路上王铭鑫个人建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注57.7-57.9Frontline resistance, short-term focus below55.6-55.8Frontline support.



Suggestions for crude oil operation:



1Suggestions57.5不破建议进空，止损58.0, Objective57.0-56.5Nearby;



2Suggestions55.5不破建议进多，止损55.0, Objective56.2-56.5Nearby;



  王铭鑫以上观点仅代表 王铭鑫个人看法，如果你觉得上述王铭鑫的观点对你有帮助，可以尝试添加菋//Line“ wmx67188”Every day, there will be timely analysis of the gold strategy, as well as real-time guidance and one-on-one consulting services, dedicated to answering every investment challenge you face.   

  Different situations have different ways to unwind, so what should be done in case the sheets and quilts are covered?


Scenario 1: When tying up, according to the chart analysis, if the purchased price is at a high level, the loss must be immediately stopped.


Scenario 2: If the purchased price is in the middle range, you can temporarily wait and see based on the situation at that time, in order to unwind and leave the market or reduce losses when the position is high.


Scenario 3: If the purchased price is at a low level, there is no need to rush to stop the loss. After the purchased price stabilizes, one should dare to cover the position at a low level in important support positions, dilute costs, and rescue the high locked position together in the subsequent rebound market.


Scenario 4: If the price of the purchased item is on an upward trend, there is no need to stop the loss. Patiently holding it for a period of time will inevitably unwind, and there may even be a possibility of significant profits.


Scenario 5: If the purchased price is in a balanced and volatile trend, there is no need to immediately stop the loss. Be patient and wait for the price to enter a high level of a volatile cycle. Once the situation is resolved or the loss is small, you should decisively exit the market., Teaching people how to fish is not as good as teaching them how to fish. Here, not only are there calling for a spot, but there are also operational ideas and skills for making orders!


Scenario 6: If the price of the purchased item is in a downward trend, once it is confirmed that the downward trend has formed, the loss should be immediately stopped, and one must not be worried about gains or losses and have illusions. Any hesitation or hesitation may result in deep confinement.


　　投资是长久之计，不是一朝一夕，所以不可操之过急。就算你现在亏损了，那也没什么可怕的，只要选择正确，失去的都会再回来。对于经常被套单的投资朋友王铭鑫告诉你要切记以下5Taboos:1Heavy storage operation.2Without stop loss.3Reverse the trend operation.4Frequent order making.5Poor mentality and easy operation. The above is a summary of my years of experience. If investors have encountered similar problems in the past, please summarize, discover your own shortcomings, and make corrections. In the long run, you will always gain something - share with everyone!


　　寄语：如果你刚刚入市，来找我，笔者会教你边学习边操作；如果你已经身在其中并不理想，可以来找我、我帮助你，不会再让你一错再错；如果你已经在这个市场摸爬滚打却遍体鳞伤，不妨来找铭鑫将有信心帮你重拾信心。如果你仓位单子被套，我会根据你的进场点位进行合理的解被套。因为每个人被套的点位不一样，解的方法也会不一样，有的适合稳健者有的适合激进者。但是笔者在这里不可能全部给出完美的答复，铭鑫建议你带上你的单。只要找到王铭鑫，我定会用最合适的方法实实在在为你解决问题、辅佐你出局。
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　　分析撰稿人： Wang Mingxin  Wei-Core（ wmx67188） 公众号（ 王铭鑫）

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