MBG Markets：欧央行迎首位女掌门，美元逆官员鹰声收跌

美联储频发鹰声，美元多头稍显乏力(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达30Points, closing down0.08%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，汇价隔夜一度上破中轨后回落，收于中轨下方；日线MA5,10构金叉，MA5趋于走高；日线MACD(12,26,9)DIFFOnline threadingDEA构金叉，阴柱翻阳；日线RSI(14)to46-47一线运行，仍承压50荣枯线下方。对布林中轨、RSI50荣枯线破位告败后，美元多头势能稍显乏力。上方阻力97.10, lower support96.50。
　　
Fundamentals:白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗指出希望美联储降息。随后，克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特发言称，倾向于不降息以刺激通胀；市场已将降息纳入定价，美联储不希望忽略这个信号，但市场并不总是对的。今日凌晨，美国总统特朗普将提名Christopher Waller为美联储理事，提名Judy Shelton为美联储官员。前者是美联储内部最大鸽派布拉德的研究主任，后者是直言不讳的“央行批评者”，料两人均会支持特朗普要求降低利率的呼吁。
　　
欧央行迎首位女掌门，欧元止跌微涨(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar46Individual points, closing up0.03%。汇价一度上探日线BOLL(20)布林中轨后走低，收于中轨下方；日线MA5,10构死叉，MA5,10双线趋于下行，截至今亚盘，汇价仍承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to50一线运行，暂时仍未跌穿50荣枯线。上方阻力38.2%Callback position1.1325, lower support61.8%Callback position1.1268。
　　
Fundamentals:local time7month2日，欧盟领导人正式提名IMF主席克里斯蒂娜·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)担任欧洲央行行长，拉加德将成为欧洲央行史上首位女行长。消息传出后，欧元短线下挫。荷兰国际银行认为，迄今为止，拉加德在货币政策方面的直言不讳未引起任何关注，现在还无法判断拉加德属于政策鹰派还是鸽派；拉加德给欧洲央行的下一步行动带来了不确定性。加拿大帝国商业银行认为，拉加德更像一名政治家，她将非常依赖欧洲央行的工作人员，料将延续当前货币政策基调。
　　
卡尼释放鸽声，英镑阴跌不止(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达62Points, closing down0.37%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，汇价已跌至中轨下方；日线MA5,10构死叉，MA5,10Double track trend downward, exchange rate under pressureMA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)DIFFOffline threadingDEA构死叉，阳柱翻阴；日线RSI(14)近两交易日自50一线迅速下行至40一线运行。技术指标层面，空头占据显著优势，且主要指标均未释放出超卖迹象，仍存进一步下行空间。上方阻力关注此前盘整区间下沿1.2660, lower support1.2530。
　　
Fundamentals:英国央行行长卡尼讲话称：全球贸易关系增加了下行风险，第二季度经济增速相当疲软，将在8月重新评估脱欧和贸易风险；经济增速当前比潜在增速低，且高度依赖于家庭支出的韧性。由于卡尼讲话中强调了经济下行风险，英镑兑美元迅速走低，创6month19日以来新低。卡尼讲话后，据CME“英国央行观察”：英国央行12Monthly interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point from41%Ascend to57%。降息预期走强施压国债收益率，英国10年期国债收益率跌破英国央行的官方利率，从月度数据看，这是自2008年秋季以来首次。
　　
　　
　　
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