Wen Juexi:8.7A must-have guide for analyzing non-agricultural gold operations, worth collecting! (Part 1)

[font=Regular script]分析黄金市场，其实一项复杂的“工程”。鉴于黄金属于特殊的商品，既要了解黄金市场的走势特点，同时要深入了解影响黄金市场的因素。[/font][font=Regular script]Wen Juexi[/font][font=Regular script]将从这两个维度去探讨分析黄金市场。[/font]
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[font=Regular script]从黄金市场的季度走势特点看，结合黄金实物需求呈现季节性特点，黄金季度走势也呈现淡季与旺季之分。通常每年的3Month to7月，一般是黄金价格走势的“淡季”，这时候黄金价格往往偏向下行；而每年的8Month to10月及每年的12From month to year2月，这时候往往是黄金价格的“旺季”，黄金价格往往向上发展。每年的12From month to year2月这段时间尤其明显。[/font]
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[font=Regular script]影响黄金市场的因素有很多，细分之下，有地缘政治风险、通胀、抵抗货币泛滥、美元、基金持仓及供求关系等因素。[/font]
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[b][color=#ff0000][font=Regular script]1）、地缘政治风险[/font][/color][/b]
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[font=Regular script]地缘政治风险导致市场动荡，使得避险情绪高涨，带来的避[/font][font=Regular script]险需求将提振金价。出现地缘政治风险的因素有：[/font][font=Regular script]①地区政权更迭，比如阿富汗战争、利比亚战争等；②地区局势动荡导致全球金融市场动荡，比如欧债危机、亚洲金融危机等；[/font]
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[b][color=#ff0000][font=Regular script]2）、通胀[/font][/color][/b]
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[font=Regular script]通胀影响购买力，从而左右经济冷热。通胀与黄金之间关系如以下三种情形：[/font]
[font=Regular script]①通胀＜1%，央行降息，刺激经济增长；央行降息将导致货币贬值，增加黄金投资和实物需求；[/font]
[font=Regular script]②1＜通胀≥2%，通胀刺激经济增长，股市等风险资产走高削减黄金资产吸引力；[/font]
[font=Regular script]③2＜通胀≥3%，央行加息，抑制经济过热；央行加息将导致货币增值，减少黄金投资和实物需求[/font]
[font=Regular script]④通胀＞3%，通货膨胀导致购买力下降，投资者增持黄金资产以求资产保值[/font]
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[b][color=#ff0000][font=Regular script]3）、抵抗货币泛滥[/font][/color][/b]
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[font=Regular script]因经济危机，央行推行非常规货币政策（如QE，即量化宽松），导致货币供应泛滥，使得信用货币（诸如美元、欧元、澳元等）快速贬值；黄金在历史上一直充当货币角色，即使现在退出货币舞台，黄金仍充当硬通货角色；因此在央行不断增加货币供应导致信用货币大幅贬值的情况下，黄金作为硬通货而大幅升值；[/font]
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[font=Regular script]下图中，美联储为了应对2008年的次贷危机而将联邦基准利率下调至0%附近，同时祭出三轮量化宽松（QE），使得美元大幅贬值，黄金价格则从2008year10Monthly low point681.40dollar/盎司一线一路攀升至1920.60dollar/盎司一线，振幅接近300%。[/font]
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[b][color=#ff0000][font=Regular script]【珏晞个人感悟】[/font][/color][/b]
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[font=Regular script]You are confused by the market and don't know how to do it. Come to me and I will point you in the direction![/font]
[font=Regular script]If you can't control yourself and are still frantically doing orders without direction, please stop and don't joke with your funds![/font]
[font=Regular script]If you have already lost a lot and don't know what to do, please control yourself and don't do whatever you want with your account![/font]
[font=Regular script]For those who make money, please remind yourself to keep your bags safe and beware of profit taking![/font]
[font=Regular script]There are also those who are following off the exchange, please don't think it's a pity that the market hasn't done well, just watch and don't have any regrets![/font]
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[b][font=Regular script]Author of this article: Wen Juexi [reprinted, please indicate source][/font][/b]
[b][font=Regular script]​Author's message: Ten years of golden road, accompany you all the way![/font][/b]

[b][font=Regular script]Full guidance time: early6：00In the early morning of the next day2：00[/font][/b]