dollar/JPY update: General inflation indicators hit 2001 Annual level

The general inflation indicator in Japan is based on2001The fastest increase since the beginning of the year

The weighted median inflation rate is often regarded as a measure of general price pressure, and this data point is based on 9 On the basis of monthly increases.10 The monthly interest rate is 2.2%, higher than 9 Of the month 2.0%Because price pressures in the Japanese economy seem to have become more deeply ingrained.

Since this year 1 Since the beginning of the month, salaryincreaseAnd the expectation of wage increases has been constantly rising, when the company provided the past 30 The largest salary increase in the past year, and a wide range of industries have also seen salary increases.The higher wage costs and input prices encourage companies to pass on the higher costs to consumers, who then negotiate better compensation plans.

This cycle may lead the Bank of Japan to make a significant decision to exit long-term ultra-low interest rates.Kazuo Ueda Recently, he also stated that he does not believe that inflation will continue to break through 2% There are still more data points to consider before the first quarter of next year, but this is the time frame revealed during negotiations with the central bank.Initially, people believed that the Bank of Japan would have enough data to make a decision by the end of this year, but the timeline seemed to have been delayed by three months.

As the US dollar further declines,dollar/The Japanese yen is falling

dollar/Japanese yen self-test50The daily simple moving average has reversed and continued to decline, mainly due todollarWeakening.Several Federal Reserve spokespersons have expressed their views on policy and inflation, with Federal Reserve Waller pointing out that consumer spending and manufacturing and service industry activities are cooling down.In addition, he acknowledges that policies are already prepared to slow down economic growth - as market confidence in the Federal Reserve's end to the interest rate hike cycle increases, the US dollar will gain more momentum.

Support is located at the low point of recent volatility147.150And then146.50, followed by145Flat.The resistance level is still50 SMA, followed by150 SMA。Since the currency reacted to the weakening of the US dollar,foreign exchangeThe threat of intervention has significantly cooled, and this situation did not occur at the beginning of the US dollar decline.

dollar/Japanese yen daily chart

Source:TradingView

Smart money is still heavily net short of the Japanese yen, and if the bearish trend continues, this position may lose support.

newest CoT Speculative positions in data

Source: Lu Fute (Refinitiv)