How long can the new energy vehicle industry continue to run wild

Market value ranking of new energy vehicles

At present, the market value ranking of new energy vehicles is seriously inconsistent with their corresponding production and profits. In recent decades, the capital market has so enthusiastically pursued an industry that there is only the Internet foam at the end of the last century and the mobile Internet foam of the previous few years. Will the entire industry of new energy vehicles be another huge industry foam? How long can this madness last? We set aside short-term market fluctuations and take a broader perspective on the entire new energy vehicle industry from three perspectives: comparison, root causes, and trends.

Comparison: Electric vehicles, mobile phones, and the internet

First of all, the development of an emerging industry cannot be separated from an appropriate foam, whether it is the Internet, mobile Internet, artificial intelligence, big data, blockchain. Only through the foam can we quickly attract creative high-end talents and cutting-edge technology, and drive the development of the industry's upstream and downstream and the entire industry chain. So the question is not whether there is a foam, but how serious is the foam and whether the foam is on the verge of bursting? The carrier of each industry is different, and the market scale and development potential are different. The degree of foam formation can be seen through industry comparison, and the critical point of foam bursting can be inferred accordingly.

For example, electric vehicles, and mobile internet, There are several very obvious characteristics

　　1. Electric vehicles have a high unit price and a small audience. It only takes one month to access the internet100Multiple internet access fees, mobile phones are now available for one or two thousand yuan cheaper, and almost everyone has access to the internet with one phone in their hands. However, cars are different. There are already a few people in the market who have cars, and in China's car stock market 95%It's still a traditional gasoline truck, only5%It's an electric vehicle, It can be seen that the proportion of people who truly drive electric vehicles is extremely low, with a small number of people.

　　2. Due to geographical limitations, the market for electric vehicles is limited to large and medium-sized cities due to their special demand for charging. And the internet and mobile phones are cross regional, breaking the constraints of space.

　　3. Substitutes will not disappear. Due to the performance and limitations of electric vehicles, traditional gasoline vehicles will at least20Year to30Not all will be replaced within the year. The emergence of the internet completely replaced telegrams, telephones, faxes, and text messages, and the emergence of mobile phones also replacedmp3Players, cameras, etc.

　　4. The radiation range of the broken circle is limited. Due to their wide audience, the internet and mobile phones can radiate into all aspects of personal life, affecting numerous industries, and even creating new business formats. So there was the internet+Mobile Internet+The slogan. However, it is difficult for electric vehicles to break through, The radiation is relatively limited, at least at present, the intelligent electric vehicle industry is still in its infancy, leaving us shouting about electric vehicles+It's extremely far away

Therefore, from the above comparison, it can be seen that the new energy vehicles are not as good as the Internet and mobile phones in terms of market size, audience coverage, industry development and impact on life. Assuming that the capital is the same for the three, the new energy vehicles are undoubtedly the most serious foam among the three.

Root cause: two reasons behind the serious foam of new energy vehicles

Existence is rationality, and the success of new energy vehicles today is inseparable from two important factors:

The first is Tesla. Before Tesla's rise, namely2020Before the beginning of the year, the new energy vehicle industry was still lukewarm and the capital market still held great skepticism towards it. Short selling of Tesla stocks used to dominate the top spot in short trading volume in the United States for many years.

Tesla has supported the entire new energy vehicle industry on its own. From significant improvements in battery performance, to autonomous driving software technology and chip design, to vehicle manufacturing processes, Tesla has become an industry benchmark, leading the entire new energy vehicle industry to make remarkable progress.

However, Tesla's success cannot be replicated because it cannot be separated from its founder Musk. Musk is a once-in-a-century wonder of humanity. His dream is the vastness of the starry sky, Tesla, but it is just a small step in his realization of his grand dream. He once said on Twitter, "Building such a massive Mars fleet is the reason why I am working hard to make money on Earth

Besides Tesla, Musk also has a well-known commercial rocketSpaceX, Satellite internet accessStarLinkStar Chain Company, Human Brain and Machine InterfaceNeutralLinkCompany, underground high-speed tunnelThe Boring CompanySolar Energy CompanyThe SolarCity。 These companies are not listed, so Tesla, as the only listed company under Musk, is inevitably favored as a result. such asSpaceXThe successful launch of a satellite can drive up Tesla's stock price, SpaceXRocket technology and materials can also be applied to Tesla's new sports cars, and even the sports cars can be launched into space. For example, Tesla will prioritize accessing global satellite internet in the future. These are all benefits that only Tesla can enjoy, just because it is Musk's Tesla. Therefore, Tesla's stock price and overvaluation are largely due to Musk's personal charm and the synergistic effects of its subsidiaries, This is beyond the reach of other new energy vehicle companies.

The valuation of new energy vehicles is aligned with Tesla, whether they are truly in the car industry or relying on their mouth and mouthPPTThose who fabricate cars want to soar to the sky through the new energy vehicle vents blown by Tesla. But many investors don't realize that, These new forces in car manufacturing are not truly comparable to Tesla. If we simply take Tesla's market value as the reference system, we would have overestimated other new energy vehicle enterprises. However, some new car making forces, such as Weilai, have doubled their valuation than Tesla. This radical valuation method has blown up the foam, which can no longer be explained from a rational market logic. Is the capital behind it crazy? This involves the second important reason we need to talk about, capital and its valuation system.

Secondly, the transformation of the capital valuation system. The traditional valuation system is based on a company's future profits discounted at interest rates, resulting in commonly used P/E ratios, P/B ratios, or enterprise value and EBITDA（Ebitda）The ratio of. This valuation system has been in use for over a hundred years, but2008After the financial crisis, it began to be criticized.

In order to overcome the financial crisis, central banks around the world have adopted quantitative easing and low interest rates to rescue the economy. However, after the crisis, interest rates not only did not return to normal levels, but also continued to decline.2020In the year of the pandemic, countries continued to release water and print money, with lower interest rates and even unprecedented negative interest rates in European countries.

In this era of extremely low interest rates, it signifies that money is becoming cheaper and more abundant. However, high-quality investment targets and potential industries are becoming increasingly scarce.10The technological revolution that occurred once a year did not come as planned, and21At the beginning of the century, there was the Internet era, and in the second10In the era of mobile internet, but in the third10Years have passed, and now big data, artificial intelligence, and blockchain are all out of place. Without significant technological breakthroughs, hotspots cannot form sustainable and prosperous industries on a large scale.

As Zhang Ying, the editor and editor, once said, "In the era of low interest rates, investors are forced to pursue limited high-quality targets, making crowded transactions even more crowded. The market's judgment of the company's value is very exaggerated, leading to more and cheaper money, fewer and narrower investment tracks, Capital becomes increasingly impatient and impatient, with larger investment amounts and more advanced investment opportunities. As long as there is a slight possibility of success for an industry or enterprise, capital will flock in, afraid of being preempted by peers. The atmosphere of capital, which is afraid of "stepping into the air" and "not getting on the train", has created a surprisingly high value in today's high-tech stock market 。 For example, the NASDAQ in the United States,1/4The market value is composed of several major companies such as Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, etc, It has also driven the market value of the new energy vehicle industry to skyrocket.

Therefore, the changes in the capital valuation system caused by Tesla and low interest rates are the two hair dryers of the foam in the new energy vehicle industry.

Trend: How long can the new energy vehicle industry continue to run wild?

From the above analysis, we can see that the new energy vehicle industry is not big, but the foam is not small. Whether this foam is about to burst depends on four aspects:

Firstly, when can the market regain its rationality, recognize the ceiling of the new energy vehicle industry, and recognize the exaggeration of Tesla's valuation by new forces in car manufacturing, as well as the current chaos in the industry that is caught up in the hot topic of new energy vehicles.

Secondly, the future development of Musk and Tesla. If Tesla's future development does not meet expectations, ifSpaceXListing, StarLinkUpon going public, Tesla will lose its "pet" and lower its market value, All these may become the fuse of the foam bursting of the new energy vehicle industry.

Thirdly, the trend of interest rates. If ultra-low interest rates cannot be maintained for a long time, and if interest rates return to normal, the new valuation system of capital will be pushed down and returned to the traditional valuation system.

Fourth, the attitude of supervision. Supervision is not happy to see the industry boom and slump, especially the industry foam burst has a profound impact on the economy. Therefore, supervision is bound to act when the industry is overheated, and the change in the attitude of supervision is often the prelude to the collapse of the industry foam. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission has conducted its first thorough investigation of the production capacity of new energy vehicles, requiring a comprehensive inventory5The news of investment projects within the year is undoubtedly a clear indicator of regulatory efforts to govern the industry.

Use Shakespeare's famous lines and classic lines from the famous American drama "The West" to describe the current new energy vehicle industry.