1、 Macrostock market indexcomment 【 External disk scanning 】 The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at29926.94Point, down346.93Point, drop1.15%； Nasdaq Composite Index closed11073.31Point, down75.33Point, Decline0.68%； Standard&Poor's500Index closing3744.52Point, down38.76Point, Decline1.02%； The FTSE UK Index closed at6997.27Point, down55.35Point, drop0.78%； FranceCACIndex closing5936.42Point, down49.04Point, drop0.82%； GermanyDAXIndex closing12470.78Point, down46.40Point, drop0.37%。 Information Review 1Federal Reserve official Kashkari: The current situation is like stagflation, but more like a transitional period that may continue1-2There is still a long way to go before the end of the interest rate hike cycle, and the threshold for policy change is very high. We are concerned about the strengthening of the US dollar, but the interest rate hike is not aimed at controlling the US dollar. Evans: Expected reduction3Completed within the year, focusing on the next meeting+50BP/75BPNext spring, the interest rate will reach4.5%.4.75%。 Waller: Friday's employment report may not change the Federal Reserve100%Focusing on reducing inflation. 2、10month6Recently, the National Grid of England has warned that if natural gas supply is severely insufficient, British households may experience power outages this winter. According to the National Grid of the UK, power outages may occur during peak electricity usage periods, such as in the morning or evening, and will be notified in advance, with a single power outage lasting up to3Hours. The UK heavily relies on natural gas for power generation, which accounts for half of the country's electricity production40%above. The UK also imports electricity from mainland Europe. The National Grid of the UK stated that although the UK's dependence on Russian natural gas is much lower than that of mainland Europe, it may still be impacted by a chain reaction of energy supply shortages on the continent. The energy crisis in Europe may result in the UK being unable to import electricity from France, Belgium or the Netherlands. National Grid said that due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the energy market experienced "unprecedented turbulence and volatility". 3The agency pointed out that the number of people applying for unemployment insurance in the United States exceeded expectations last week, although it is still at a historical low, which is the latest sign that labor demand may start to slow down. If the number of initial applicants for unemployment benefits continues to rise, it will indicate weak spending in various departments, and the uncertainty of the economic outlook is prompting some companies to lay off workers. Nevertheless, the number of applicants remains low, continuing to indicate a strong labor market. The number of non farm employment will be announced on Friday, and it is expected that9The monthly employment report will show an increase in non farm employment population26Ten thousand people. Although this will be from2020The lowest monthly job creation since the year-end decline, but this is still a strong growth, indicating a strong labor market. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at50Near the annual low point, the average hourly wage will once again grow strongly.
2、 Agricultural Product Review 【 External disk scanning 】CBOTAmerican beans11Contract received1360.00cent/Bushel, down9.75, decline0.71%；CBOTAmerican soybean meal12Contract received393.9dollar/Short tons, down4.6, decline1.15%；CBOTSoybean oil12Contract received66.13cent/Pounds, up0.59Increase0.9%；CBOTAmerican corn12Contract received675.75cent/Bushel, down8.25, decline1.21%；ICEAmerican cotton12Contract received83.18cent/Pounds, down0.05, decline0.06%；ICEsugar11number03Contract received18.39cent/Pounds, up0.44Increase2.45%。1、10month6According to foreign media reports, MalaysiaBMDCrude palm oilfuturesThursday's rally expanded to its sixth trading day and closed at a nearly two-week high, driven by concerns about humid weather andcrude oilThe rise in prices has boosted. As of Beijing time18:00，BMDMalaysian palm oil main contract up1.62%Report3701myr /Tons, which rose sharply during the trading session4.4%。 Kuala Lumpur Commodity Consulting CompanyApricus 8 PteLtddirectorMarcello CultreraSays that palm oil prices may be driven by demand and discounts relative to soft oil prices. He stated that due to the possible impact of La Ni ñ a weather, palm oil production in Southeast Asia will increase11Month to2The expectation of a monthly decline also supports the contract.2From10month6According to the daily updated weather map, American soybeans, corn and cotton are in harvest.10month6day-14During the day, the main soybean and corn producing areas in the Midwest of the United States have less rainfall, while the largest cotton producing state, Texas, has almost no rainfall. The dry weather conditions are conducive to the harvesting process.3、10month6According to the National Commodity Supply Company under the Brazilian Ministry of AgricultureCONABPublished10Monthly forecast data display: ① Estimated2022/23The annual Brazilian corn yield is12694.110000 tons, year-on-year increase1413.610000 tons, increase12.5%； Month on month increase144.210000 tons, increase1.1%；② estimate2022/23The annual yield of Brazil's second crop corn is9627.710000 tons, year-on-year increase1065.410000 tons, increase12.4%； Month on month increase174.610000 tons, increase1.8%；③ estimate2022/23The annual Brazilian corn yield is5.67ton/Hectares, year-on-year increase440.6Kilogram/Hectare, increase8.4%； Month on month decrease6.8Kilogram/Hectares, reduced0.1%；④ estimate2022/23The annual yield of Brazil's second crop corn is5.58ton/Hectares, year-on-year increase349.2Kilogram/Hectare, increase6.7%； Month on month decrease3.4Kilogram/Hectares, reduced0.1%。
3、 Metal Review 【 External disk scanning 】 LMECopper closing7559USD, down120.5Point, drop1.57%； LMEAluminum receiving2328USD, down24Point, drop1.02%； LMEZinc receiving3060.5USD, up16.5Point increase0.54%； LMELead collection2023USD, down13.5Point, drop0.66%。 LMETin receiving19925USD, down365Point, drop1.8%。 LMENickel received22745USD, up157Point increase0.7%。 1London Metal Exchange(LME): Increase in aluminum inventory325Tons, increase in copper inventory1550Tons, reduced nickel inventory138Tons, lead inventory remains flat, tin inventory decreases135Tons, reduced zinc inventory25Tons.2London Metal Exchange（LME）Restriction of Ural Mining and Metals Company in Russia（UMMC）Delivery of metal products, but not to Russian Ural Mining Metals Company（UMMC）Apply restrictions on copper products.3Reported by Hong Kong Wande News Agency,10month6Day,London Metal Exchange（LME）Expressing awareness that more and more consumers may come from2023Not willing to accept Russian metals since; In the absence of comprehensive sanctions on Russian metal products, market scrutiny will be sought2023Opinion on the acceptability of Russian metal expectations in.4、 Energy and Chemical Industry Review 【 External disk scanning 】NYMEXcrude oil11Contract received88.96dollar/Barrel, up1.2Increase1.37%；IPEcrude oil12Contract received94.92dollar/Barrel, up1.55Increase1.66%。1German energy regulatory agency Federal Network Administration Local time6Japan stated that German households and small businesses last weeknatural gasConsumption compared to before4The average level during the same period of the year is nearly higher10%Germany will face a severe energy crisis in winter if its gas consumption is not significantly reduced. Klaus Muller, Director of the Federal Network Administration, said that to avoid an emergency this winter, households and small businesses must save energy by at least20%。 A week ago, Mueller also issued a similar initiative, but the results were minimal, with gas consumption increasing instead of decreasing nationwide.2According to CCTV Finance, currently, many European countries have stated that they have sufficient reserves for the winternatural gasButInternational Energy AgencyDirector Fatih Birol5In an interview with the media in the Finnish capital Helsinki, Japan stated that even if the winter can pass smoothly this year, if the situation does not change, next winter will be even more difficult for European countries. Birol said that after a winternatural gasConsumption, expected to arrive2023year2Month to3Month, European countriesnatural gasReserves will be consumed into inventory25%reach30%。3JPMorgan Chase stated that crude oil prices need to climb to a "significantly higher" level in order for drilling companies to significantly increase their spending to increase supply.JPMorgan Chaseanalystchristan MalekHe said that although the global energy crisis was mainly driven by supply, major oil producing countries were still unwilling to invest in long-term projects at current prices. Meanwhile, OPEC+Agreed to reduce production20010000 barrels/Day.MalekUS shale oil producers are "accustomed to returning cash and gaining more favor from Wall Street," which limits the prospects of increasing capital expenditures at current price levels. |
