ATFXFutures Market:COMEXGold opens with a jump and is expected to break a new historical record this week

受美元指数大跌影响，COMEXgold今日跳涨开盘，截至15:00The highest touch in the plate2072.7美元，距离历史最高价2089.2美元仅一步之遥。如果迅猛涨势能够延续，COMEX黄金本周有望刷新历史最高纪录。


From a technical perspective,COMEX黄金处于中期上涨趋势之中，9month26Starting from today,K线一直运行于上升通道内部。经过今日跳涨后，市价逼近通道上轨阻力位，面临短线回调需求。震荡指标KD的读数也已经进入超买区，警惕随时可能出现的阴KLine.ATR提示当前COMEX黄金的日内振幅约为31美元，处于中上等水平，波动率较高，建议适当放大止损区间。中期均线MA30stay10month13日被突破，10month30Solstice11month10的回落没能跌破AM30，表明中期趋势已经由空转多。

美元指数的下跌与美国宏观经济衰退预期增强有关。11月初公布的非农就业报告表现不佳，失业率上升的同时新增就业人口大幅低于前值。11month14The United States announced on the day10Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPILatest annual rate3.2%, much lower than the previous value3.7%, CoreCPI年率也从4.1%Descend to4%。高通胀问题的消退将导致美联储放弃激进加息政策，但会维持当前高基准利率的状态。市场预期已经在押注美联储将很快启动降息，这是美元指数持续大跌的根本原因。在美国的非农就业报告和CPI数据重归健康状态之间，美指难有强势表现，COMEX黄金将持续受益。

10month19Recently,10年期美债持续回落，从4.988%跌至目前4.2667%。美债是生息资产，且绝对利率较高；黄金是不生息资产，没有利息收入。美债和黄金都具有避险属性，加之美债的利率优势，所以高利率环境下，金融市场正抛弃黄金并拥抱美债。不过，随着美债收益率回落，黄金的比较优势有所恢复，助推金价走强。

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2023-11-29